经济理论与经济管理 ›› 2013, Vol. 33 ›› Issue (10): 38-49.

• 经济热点 • 上一篇    下一篇

城市化能降低中国的出口依赖吗

 马丹   

  1. 浙江工商大学金融学院,杭州310018
  • 收稿日期:2013-06-15 出版日期:2013-10-20 发布日期:2013-10-28
  • 作者简介:马丹(1978—),男,内蒙古包头人,浙江工商大学金融学院副教授,经济学博士。

CAN URBANIZATION REDUCE CHINA'S EXPORT DEPENDENCE

 MA  Dan   

  1. School of Finance, Zhejiang Gongshang University, Hangzhou 310018, China
  • Received:2013-06-15 Online:2013-10-20 Published:2013-10-28

摘要: 现有研究通常认为中国的城市化进程可以促进内需,降低出口依赖度。但是现实数据却显示,中国存在城市化水平与出口依赖度同时上升的现象。本文通过实证研究对这一现象进行了解释。实证研究表明:收入差距扩大是导致中国出口依赖度增强的决定性因素。中国的城市化进程一方面通过扩大收入差距导致出口依赖度上升,另一方面通过促进投资导致出口依赖度下降。但是由于内生于城市化进程的收入差距扩大和外生的收入差距扩大所共同产生的提高出口依赖度的效应,超过了城市化通过投资渠道降低出口依赖度的效应,最终导致中国城市化水平与出口依赖度同时上升的现象出现。

关键词: 城市化 , 出口依赖度 , 收入差距

Abstract: It is a popular view that the urbanization can promote domestic demand and reduce export dependence in China. However, the reality is that both urbanization and export dependence increase in recent years. This paper makes an empirical investigation on this phenomenon. Empirical results show that: the widening income gap leads to Chinas export dependence enhancement; Chinas urbanization on the one hand leads to higher degree of export dependence by expanding income gap, on the other hand decreases export dependence by promoting investment; However, the increasing power caused by widening income gap endogenous and exogenous with urbanization exceeds the decreasing power, which finally results in the phenomenon that both urbanization rising and export dependence rises at the same time in China.

Key words:  urbanization , export dependence , income gap