经济理论与经济管理 ›› 2012, Vol. 32 ›› Issue (2): 47-53.

• 理论探索 • 上一篇    下一篇

进口贸易是否抑制了技术进步——状态空间模型的再检验

 陈昊, 赵春明   

  1. 北京师范大学经济与工商管理学院
  • 收稿日期:2011-08-22 出版日期:2012-02-16 发布日期:2012-03-05
  • 作者简介:陈昊(1987—),男,江西赣州人,北京师范大学经济与工商管理学院博士研究生 赵春明(1964—),男,江西赣州人,北京师范大学经济与工商管理学院教授,经济学博士
  • 基金资助:

    国家社会科学基金重点项目(11AJL005

DOES IMPORT OBSTRUCT TECHNOLOGICAL PROGRESS
——Reexamination Based on the Statespace Model

 CHEN  Hao, ZHAO  Chun-Ming   

  1. School of Economic Administration, Beijing Normal University, Beijing , China
  • Received:2011-08-22 Online:2012-02-16 Published:2012-03-05

摘要: 本文基于周方的“增长函数”,并借鉴“广义索罗余值”思想对中国技术进步水平和速率进行重新测度。在此基础上构建状态空间模型并利用卡尔曼滤波,实证分析进口贸易对技术进步和技术进步速率的影响。本文研究表明:第一,中国的技术水平虽然整体保持增长,但是速率波动很大,表明技术进步趋势尚不稳定;第二,进口贸易对技术进步呈现显著负向影响,改革开放虽然减轻了影响程度,却没有改变影响方向。可见进口贸易在一定程度上抑制了技术进步,但是进口贸易对技术进步速率的影响依然显著为正。

关键词: 进口贸易 , 技术进步 , 增长函数 , 状态空间模型

Abstract:  This paper remeasured the level and rate of Chinese technological progress by applying growth function and generalized Solow residuals It built a state space model and used Kalman filtering to empirically analyze technical progress and imports rate of technological progress This study showed that: first, although the overall level of Chinas technology was growing, the rate fluctuated greatly, which indicated that the trend of technological progress was not yet stable; second, imports negatively affected technological progress, which was alleviated by reform and openness It could obstruct technological progress to some extent, but the impact of import trade on the rate of technological progress was still significantly positive

Key words: import , technological progress , growth function , state space model