关键词: 潜在增长率 , HP滤波法 , 国际比较

Abstract: Under the background of international financial crisis, the imbalanced, uncoordinated and unsustainable structural contradictions of Chinese economy were becoming serious increasingly. Especially in 2012, the Chinese government set the expected GDP target below 8%, which was the lowest one in the past 8 years, and had triggered hot discussion on Chinas economic development path and the development potential in the future. The answers of these problems relied on the scientific analysis of the comparison between the typical developing countries. This paper selected the typical economic entities such as Japan, Korea, which had already passed the middle-income trap successfully and part of BRIC countries such as Brazil, India, and Russia, as the comparison objects and applied these entities potential GDP historical data based on the HP filter. Based on the deeply analysis of the fluctuation of potential GDP rates on different development stages and the corresponding features of the industry structures, input structures and demand structures, this paper provided some opinions for Chinas sustainable development and the fundamental transformation of growth mode.

Key words: potential GDP growth rate , HP filter , international comparison