关键词: 农产品价格 , 金融抑制 , 劳动力成本 , 通货膨胀 , VAR模型

Abstract: This paper analyzed their interaction mechanism in the perspective of labor costs, real interest rates and exchange rates. Through farmers grainsaving behavior, firm investment promotion, exchange rate transmission mechanism, inflation had an effect on agricultural product price level. Under the conditions of the Lewis turning point, the rising agricultural product price level led to the general price level going up through the channel of rising labor cost, and the influence degree grew continuously. To test the above hypotheses, the paper applied an empirical research with VAR models. Finally, the paper provided a series of policy implications on inflation management in macrocontrol system.

Key words: agricultural product price , financial repression , labor cost , inflation , VAR model