威廉姆森假说:空间集聚与区域经济增长——基于中国省域数据门槛回归的实证研究

经济理论与经济管理 ›› 2011, Vol. 31 ›› Issue (4): 95-102.

威廉姆森假说:空间集聚与区域经济增长——基于中国省域数据门槛回归的实证研究

徐盈之, 彭欢欢, 刘修岩

东南大学经济管理学院, 南京, 210096

收稿日期:2011-01-12 出版日期:2011-04-16 发布日期:2011-05-10
作者简介:徐盈之(1970- ),女,浙江杭州人,东南大学经济管理学院教授,博士生导师;彭欢欢(1985- ),女,江苏连云港人,东南大学经济管理学院硕士研究生;刘修岩(1979- ),男,山东济宁人,东南大学经济管理学院讲师.
基金资助:
国家社会科学基金重点项目(07AJL008);国家重大科技专项子课题(2009ZX07101-009-01-03);教育部人文社会科学研究一般项目(10YJA790212)

WILLIAMSON HYPOTHESIS: SPATIAL AGGLOMERATION AND GROWTH OF REGIONAL ECONOMY——An Empirical Analysis Based on Threshold Regression Using China's Regional Data

XU Ying-zhi, PENG Huan-huan, LIU Xiu-yan

School of Economics & Management, Southeast University, Nanjing 210096, China

Received:2011-01-12 Online:2011-04-16 Published:2011-05-10

摘要/Abstract

摘要： 威廉姆森假说认为,空间集聚在经济发展初期能显著促进效率提升,但达到某一门槛值后,空间集聚对经济增长的影响变小,甚至不利于经济增长,拥挤外部性更倾向于分散的地理空间结构。本文基于巴罗(Barro)增长模型建立了门槛回归模型,利用中国30个省域1978—2008年的数据对威廉姆森假说进行了实证检验,考察了空间集聚与中国区域经济增长之间的关系。研究结果表明,空间集聚对经济增长具有非线性效应,即没有达到门槛值以前,集聚对经济增长具有正效应,但超出门槛值后,集聚会降低经济增长率,即威廉姆森假说在中国显著存在。研究同时还表明,中国经济发展呈现出趋同和发散并存的态势。最后,本文据此提出了相应的政策建议。

关键词: 威廉姆森假说, 空间集聚, 经济增长, 门槛回归

Abstract: Williamson hypothesis suggests that efficiency can be significantly enhanced by spatial agglomeration at the early stage of development.But after reaching a threshold value,the effect of spatial agglomeration on growth is weaker,even adverse.Congestion externalities may favor a more scattered geo-spatial structure.Based on Barro's growth model,this paper used a threshold regression model and 30 provincial data in China from 1978 to 2008 to make an empirical test of Williamson hypothesis and explored the relationship between spatial concentration and economic growth.The results showed that spatial agglomeration had significant non-linear effect on China's economic growth.That is,while not reaching the threshold value,agglomeration had a positive effect on economic growth;once exceeding the threshold value,agglomeration would reduce the rate of economic growth.That is to say,there existed a significant Williamson hypothesis.Meanwhile,the trend of economic growth in China had shown the coexistence of convergence and divergence.Accordingly,this paper presented some corresponding policy recommendations in the final part.

Key words: Williamson hypothesis, spatial agglomeration, economic growth, threshold regression

中图分类号:

F127

徐盈之, 彭欢欢, 刘修岩. 威廉姆森假说:空间集聚与区域经济增长——基于中国省域数据门槛回归的实证研究[J]. 经济理论与经济管理, 2011, 31(4): 95-102.

XU Ying-zhi, PENG Huan-huan, LIU Xiu-yan. WILLIAMSON HYPOTHESIS: SPATIAL AGGLOMERATION AND GROWTH OF REGIONAL ECONOMY——An Empirical Analysis Based on Threshold Regression Using China's Regional Data[J]. Economic Theory and Business Management, 2011, 31(4): 95-102.

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