经济发展水平、产业结构与碳排放强度——中国省级面板数据分析

经济理论与经济管理 ›› 2011, Vol. 31 ›› Issue (3): 72-81.

经济发展水平、产业结构与碳排放强度——中国省级面板数据分析

虞义华¹, 郑新业¹, 张莉²

1. 中国人民大学, 北京 100872;
2. 中央财经大学, 北京 100081

收稿日期:2010-12-16 出版日期:2011-03-16 发布日期:2011-06-10
作者简介:虞义华(1977- ),男,江西吉安人,中国人民大学经济学院讲师,经济学博士;郑新业(1969- ),男,河南新县人,中国人民大学经济学院副教授,经济学博士;张莉(1973- ),女,云南玉溪人,中央财经大学中国公共财政与政策研究院副教授,经济学博士.

CARBON DIOXIDE EMISSION AND ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT:A PANEL DATA ANALYSIS

YU Yi-hua¹, ZHENG Xin-ye¹, ZHANG Li²

1. School of Economics, Renmin University of China, Beijing 100872, China;
2. China Academy of Public Finance and Public Policy, Central University of Finance and Economics, Beijing 100081, China

Received:2010-12-16 Online:2011-03-16 Published:2011-06-10

摘要/Abstract

摘要： 利用我国29个省市自治区1995—2007年的面板数据,本文分析了二氧化碳排放强度同经济发展水平及产业结构之间的关系。通过多项计量检验,比较了不同计量模型之后,笔者选取了能够修正面板异相关和自相关的可行的广义最小二乘法(FGLS)模型。研究表明,(1)碳强度同人均GDP之间存在"N"形关系。(2)第二产业比重同碳强度存在正相关关系,即第二产业比重越高,二氧化碳排放强度就越高。(3)对经济发展与碳排放之间关系进行的情景分析表明,如果产业结构不改变,没有实施另外的政策,经济增长速度本身难以引致碳排放强度的大幅下降,2020年二氧化碳排放强度下降40%~45%的目标难以实现。

关键词: 二氧化碳排放, 环境库兹涅茨曲线(EKC), 面板数据

Abstract: Using a panel data of 29 provinces during 1995—2007 in mainland China,this paper examined the relationship between per GDP carbon dioxide(CO₂) emission and economic development.Through a series of model specification tests this paper compared several econometric models and eventually chose the FGLS model which allows controlling for panel heterogeneity and autocorrelation.The main findings were as follows: 1) a cubic relationship exists between CO₂ intensity and GDP.That is,emission intensity falls at a decreasing rate to a point and at an increasing rate thereafter;2) the higher the ratio of secondary sector to an overall industry,the higher the emission intensity;3) there is no apparent "automatism" in the process of Chinese economic development to assure the CO₂ emission intensity will fall substantially with rising GDP.The fulfillment of the agreement to reduce CO₂ emissions per unit GDP by 40% to 45% of 2005 levels by 2020 is less plausible unless there is a structural break induced by the CO₂ related policy change.

Key words: carbon dioxide emission, Environmental Kuznets Curve, panel data

中图分类号:

虞义华, 郑新业, 张莉. 经济发展水平、产业结构与碳排放强度——中国省级面板数据分析[J]. 经济理论与经济管理, 2011, 31(3): 72-81.

YU Yi-hua, ZHENG Xin-ye, ZHANG Li. CARBON DIOXIDE EMISSION AND ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT:A PANEL DATA ANALYSIS[J]. Economic Theory and Business Management, 2011, 31(3): 72-81.

参考文献

[1] Subhes Bhattacharyya,Arjaree Ussanarassamee.Decomposition of Energy and CO₂ Intensities of Thai Industry between 1981 and 2000[J].Energy Economics,2004,26 (5),.
[2] Fan Ying,Liu Lan-cui,Wang Gang,Hsien-Tang Tsai,Wei Yi-ming.Changes in Carbon Intensity in China:Empirical Findings from 1980-2003[J].Ecological Economics,2007,62 (3-4).
[3] Zhang Ming,Mu Hai-lin,Ning Ya-dong,Song Yong-chen.Decomposition of Energy-related CO₂ Emission over 1991-2006 in China[J].Ecological Economics,2009,68 (7).
[4] Zhang You-guo.Structural Decomposition Analysis of Sources of Decarbonizing Economic Development in China:1992-2006[J].Ecological Economics,2009,68 (8-9).
[5] Timmons Roberts,Peter Grimes.Carbon Intensity and Economic Development 1962-1991:A Brief Exploration of the Environmental Kuznets Curve[J].World Development,1997,25 (2).
[6] Nemat Shafik,Sushenjit Bandyopadhyay.Economic Growth and Environmental Quality:Time Series and Cross-country Evidence[Z].Policy Research Working Paper Series,1992.
[7] Theodore Panayotou.Economic Growth and the Environment[Z].Working Paper 56,Cambridge,MA:Center for International Development at Harvard University,2000.
[8] Grossman Gene,Alan Krueger.Economic Growth and the Environment[J].The Quarterly Journal of Economics,1995,110 (2).
[9] Thomas Selden,Daqing Song.Environmental Quality and Development:Is There a Kuznets Curve for Air Pollution Emissions?[J].Journal of Environmental Economics and Management,1994,27 (2).
[10] Grossman Gene,Alan Krueger.Economic Growth and the Environment[J].The Quarterly Journal of Economics,1995,110,(2).
[11] David Stern,Michael Common,Edward Barbier.Economic Growth and Environmental Degradation:The Environmental Kuznets Curve and Sustainable Development[J].World Development,1996,24 (7).
[12] Kenneth Arrow et al.Economic Growth,Carrying Capacity,and the Environment[J].Ecological Economics,1995,15 (2).
[13] William Harbaugh,Levinson Arik Reexamining the Empirical Evidence for an Environmental Kuznets Curve[J].Review of Economics and Statistics,2002,84 (3).
[14] Jie He,Patrick Richard.Environmental Kuznets Curve for CO₂ in Canada[Z].Ecological Economics,2010.
[15] Timmons Roberts,Peter Grimes.Carbon Intensity and Economic Development 1962-1991:A Brief Exploration of the Environmental Kuznets Curve[J].World Development,1997,25 (2).
[16] William Moomaw,Gregory Unruh.Are Environmental Kuznets Curves Misleading Us? The Case of CO₂ Emissions[J].Environment and Development Economics,2001,2 (4).
[17] Marzio Galeotti,Alessandro Lanza.Desperately Seeking Environmental Kuznets[J].Environmental Modelling & Software,2005,20 (11).
[18] Birgit Friedl,Michael Getzner.Determinants of CO₂ Emissions in a Small Open Economy[J].Ecological Economics,2003,45 (1).
[19] Daniel Millimet,John List,Thanasis Stengos.The Environmental Kuznets Curve:Real Progress or Misspecified Models?[J].Review of Economics and Statistics,2003,85 (4).
[20] William Greene.Econometric Analysis[M].NJ:Prentice Hall,2003.
[21] Trevor Breusch,Adrian Pagan.The Lagrange Multiplier Test and Its Applications to Model Specification in Econometrics[J].The Review of Economic Studies,1980,47 (1).
[22] Scott Baier,Jeffrey Bergstrand.Do Free Trade Agreements Actually Increase Members' International Trade?[J].Journal of International Economics,2007,71 (1).
[23] Jeffrey Wooldridge.Econometric Analysis of Cross Section and Panel Data[Z].MA:The MIT Press,2002.
[24] David Drukker.Testing for Serial Correlation in Linear Panel-data Models[J].Stata Journal,2003,3 (2).
[25] Jan Kmenta.Elements of Econometrics[M].New York:Macmillan,1986.