中国土地供应管制对住宅价格波动的影响

经济理论与经济管理 ›› 2011, Vol. 31 ›› Issue (2): 33-40.

中国土地供应管制对住宅价格波动的影响

丰雷¹, 苗田², 蒋妍³

1. 中国人民大学公共管理学院, 北京 100872;
2. 英国伦敦学院大学巴特利规划学院, WC1E 6BT;
3. 中国人民大学统计学院, 北京 100872

收稿日期:2010-11-08 出版日期:2011-02-16 发布日期:2011-06-10
作者简介:丰雷(1972- ),男,山东聊城人,中国人民大学公共管理学院土地管理系副教授,管理学博士;苗田(1984- ),女,河南新郑人,英国伦敦学院大学巴特利规划学院博士研究生; 蒋妍(1973- ),女,安徽宿州人,中国人民大学统计学院副教授,经济学博士.
基金资助:
中央高校基本科研业务费专项资金项目(2009030168);教育部“211工程”三期子项目“中国特色的公共管理与公共政策学科平台建设”

THE EFFECT OF LAND SUPPLY RESTRICTION ON HOUSING PRICE FLUCTUATION IN CHINA

FENG Lei¹, MIAO Tian², JIANG Yan³

1. Department of Land and Real Estate Management, School of Public Administration, Renmin University of China, Beijing 100872, China;
2. Bartlett School of Planning, University College London, London, UK, WC1E 6BT;
3. School of Statistics, Renmin University of China, Beijing 100872, China

Received:2010-11-08 Online:2011-02-16 Published:2011-06-10

摘要/Abstract

摘要： 结合中国实际修正传统的存量—流量模型,选取1999—2007年中国30省市的季度面板数据进行计量检验,分析土地供应管制与住宅价格波动的关系,并比较不同的土地供应管制强度下投机因素对房价影响的大小。研究表明:(1)中国的土地供应管制对住宅价格水平及波动都有显著影响;(2)土地供给管制环境的宽松与紧缩影响投机行为作用的大小,当土地供应管制加强时,投机因素对房价波动的影响更大;(3)2003年下半年以来我国"从严从紧"的紧缩供地政策,通过预期效应作用于投机行为,进而传导给住宅市场,对平抑房价政策目标的实现产生了一定的负面影响。

关键词: 土地供应, 土地利用管制, 住宅价格, 存量—流量模型

Abstract: This paper analyses the effect of the land supply restrictions and the consequent speculations on the housing price fluctuation in China.Methods of improved Stock-Flow model and panel data model are used.The influences of the speculations on housing price are compared under different land supply environments.The results indicate that land supply policies do have obvious influence on housing prices in China.When the restrictions are tightened,the speculations would cause bigger fluctuation in the housing market.It is concluded that the contractive and rigorous land supply policies in the later 2003 in China made the effect of the housing price controlling policies undesirable through the self-realization process of the anticipation and the speculation.

Key words: land supply, land use restriction, housing price, stock-flow model

中图分类号:

F293.3

丰雷, 苗田, 蒋妍. 中国土地供应管制对住宅价格波动的影响[J]. 经济理论与经济管理, 2011, 31(2): 33-40.

FENG Lei, MIAO Tian, JIANG Yan. THE EFFECT OF LAND SUPPLY RESTRICTION ON HOUSING PRICE FLUCTUATION IN CHINA[J]. Economic Theory and Business Management, 2011, 31(2): 33-40.

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