关键词: 产业结构, 经济波动, 熨平效应

Abstract: The empirical analysis by time-varying parameter model indicates that since reform and opening-up in China,the industrial structure upgrading has a more and more significant stabilizing effect on the amplitude of economic fluctuations.The further analysis by TGARCH model reveals that the three major industries make unsymmetrical effects to the amplitude of macroeconomic fluctuation: the primary industry has hardly effect on the amplitude of macroeconomic fluctuation;the secondary industry has leverage effect on the amplitude of macroeconomic fluctuation,heavy industry of which makes the maximum contribution;the tertiary industry has the stabilizing effect on the macroeconomic fluctuation,while the stabilizing effect from transportation,logistics,postal industry and accommodation-catering services is most significant but the stabilizing effect from wholesale,retail,financial industry and real estate is less significant.In order to maintain the stabilizing growth of China's macro economy,we should continue to promote upgrading the industrial structure,realize the coordinated development of three major industries and emphasize the developing of the tertiary industry especially.

Key words: industry structure, economic fluctuations, stabilizing effect