关键词: 人民币国际化, 国际货币体系改革, 稳定性

Abstract: Both the recent debt ceiling crisis of the U.S.and the downgrade of its credit rating served to refocus on the stability of the current bipolar international monetary system.Given China's increasing influence in the world economy,we argue in this paper that the internationalization of the Renminbi would strengthen the international monetary system by transforming the current regime into a tripolar one.Using a panel regression model,we first investigate empirically the determinants of the status of a reserve currency and simulate the share of the Renminbi in the international reserve holdings.By assuming free convertibility of the Renminbi,our results indicate that its potential as a reserve currency would be comparable to that of the euro by 2020.We further show that the international reserve holdings composed of the dollar,the euro and the Renminbi would be more stable than that under the bipolar international monetary system.

Key words: RMB internationalization, international monetary system, stability