关键词: 民工荒, 刘易斯拐点, 伊斯特林长波

Abstract: This paper made a new interpretation of the phenomenon of "migrant workers shortage" from a unique perspective of demographic swings.The demographic swings had caused dramatic structural changes of working-age population.On the one hand,working-age population was keeping ageing gradually and the proportion of the younger workers was declining,but the employers preferred the young.This contradiction led to an imbalance of supply and demand of young workers.On the other hand,the number of fresh workers entering into the labor market was declining every year,which destroyed the path of annual turnover of workers.Furthermore,the high education created the first profession division,and its expansion aggravated the decline of the young workers supply.Therefore,the shortage of migrant workers was not a sign of the Lewis turning point which is described as the decreasing migration flows from rural areas to urban due to the vanishing of the surplus labor force in rural areas,but an issue associated with the overall reduction in size of young manual-worker population caused by demographic swings and the expansion of high education.This was supported by Easterlin's argument: the fluctuation of population exerted a great influence on the economic and social development.

Key words: migrant workers shortage, Lewis turning point, Easterlin demographic swings