经济理论与经济管理 ›› 2011, Vol. ›› Issue (6): 69-76.

• 论文 • 上一篇    下一篇

日本大地震的溢出性经济影响与中国对策

刚健华, 何青   

  1. 中国人民大学财政金融学院, 北京 100872
  • 收稿日期:2011-05-09 出版日期:2011-06-16 发布日期:2012-02-27
  • 基金资助:
    中国人民大学科学研究基金(中央高校基本科研业务费专项资金资助)项目(10XNF002)

ECONOMIC CONSEQUENCES OF THE 2011 TOHOKU PACIFIC EARTHQUAKE

GANG Jian-hua, HE Qing   

  1. School of Finance, Renmin University of China, Beijing 100872, China
  • Received:2011-05-09 Online:2011-06-16 Published:2012-02-27

摘要: 本文分析了2011年日本大地震对日本和亚洲区经济体所造成的严重经济后果,并着重探讨对中国经济发展的影响和启示。本文的研究表明,本次灾难会加剧日本政府的债务负担,加速日本制造产业向外转移,削弱日本在全球,特别是东南亚经济的核心地位。中国应当适时推动人民币资本向日本和东南亚国家输出,遏制灾难引起的负面影响扩散,在援助日本的同时,解决国内流动性过剩的问题,加速人民币区域化和国际化进程,达成合理的区域合作与多边共赢;并提供优厚条件吸引日本中高端制造业向中国进行产业转移,促进中国制造业的产业升级。

关键词: 日本大地震, 经济后果, 人民币区域化

Abstract: The paper studied possible economic consequences of the 2011 Tohoku Pacific earthquake to Asian economy.In particular,we discuss the economic spillovers to China and regional economy and their policy implications.Our result showed that Japanese sovereign debt would deteriorate heavily due to the considerable reconstruction bill.Japanese manufactory sector would relocate abroad at a higher speed because of the incentive to stabilize production.Japanese role as the reserve currency and dominant funder of regional(Asian) economies would be challenged.As the biggest economy in Asian,China should take the role as a core power engine in Asian economy by exporting currency and capital assets.China should also actively fund the infrastructure reconstruction and the Asian Development Bank so as to exporting considerable excess liquidity to ease domestic inflation.A widely used and reserved currency should both benefit Chinese macro economy and regional multilateral co-operations as well.Finally,China should provide favorable policy for Japanese industry to move inland so as to benefit from hi-tech know-hows and employments.

Key words: Tohoku pacific earthquake, economic consequences, regionalization

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