异质有限理性预期与住宅价格动态反馈机制系统仿真

经济理论与经济管理 ›› 2010, Vol. ›› Issue (9): 20-28.

异质有限理性预期与住宅价格动态反馈机制系统仿真

沈悦¹, 周奎省¹, 张金梅²

1. 西安交通大学, 西安, 710061;
2. 西安外国语大学, 西安, 710061

收稿日期:2010-07-16 出版日期:2010-09-16 发布日期:2012-03-01
基金资助:
国家社会科学基金项目(08JA790100);教育部人文社会科学基金项目(08XJY002)

DYNAMIC STATE FEEDBACK MECHANISM BETWEEN HETEROGENEOUS BOUNDEDLY RATIONAL EXPECTATION AND THE REAL ESTATES PRICE

SHEN Yue¹, ZHOU Kui-sheng¹, ZHANG Jin-mei²

1. Xi'an Jiaotong University, Xi'an 710061, China;
2. Xi'an International Studies University, Xi'an 710061, China

Received:2010-07-16 Online:2010-09-16 Published:2012-03-01

摘要/Abstract

摘要： 本文基于"异质有限理性预期",运用"系统动力学方法"分析了开发商、自住性及投资性购房者的预期与住宅价格之间的动态反馈关系及对住宅价格的影响。研究发现:开发商和投资性购房者的预期与住宅价格存在正反馈效应,自住性购房者的预期与住宅价格分别存在负反馈和正反馈效应;2006年以前,自住性购房者的预期与住宅价格之间的负反馈效应不明显,开发商和自住性购房者的预期与住宅价格之间的正反馈机制是推动住宅价格持续上涨的主要动力源;2006年以后,开发商和投资性购房者的预期与住宅价格之间的正反馈机制是支撑住宅价格持续上涨的主要动力;2007年之后,住宅价格和市场需求严重脱节;抑制投资性购房需求在采取"堵压"策略的同时,更应注重引导民间资本流向实体经济。

关键词: 异质有限理性预期, 住宅价格, 反馈机制, 系统动力学

Abstract: Based on the theory of Heterogeneous boundedly rational expectation,and using the System Dynamics Simulation method,this paper analyzes the dynamic state feedback mechanism between the expectation of real estates developers,self-use owners,and owners as real estates investors,and the price of real estates,as well as the impact this mechanism has over the real-estates price.This research finds that:(Ⅰ)Positive feedback exists between real estates price and the expectation of real estates developers and investors,While both a negative and a positive feedback exist between real estates price and the expectation of self-use owners;(Ⅱ) Before 2006,the effect of the negative feedback between the expectation of self-use owners and the real estates price was not obvious,while the positive feedback between the expectation of real estates developers and self-use owners and the real estates price became the main force of pushing the real estates price to continuously increase.(Ⅲ) Since 2007,the growth of the real estates price became severely irrational regardless of the market demands;(Ⅳ)In order to curb the demands for real estates as a means of investment,the "block-pressure" policy should be taken,and in the meantime more attention should be paid to guiding folk capitals to flow towards real economy.

Key words: heterogeneous boundedly rational expectation, real estates price, dynamic state feedback mechanism, system dynamics

中图分类号:

F293.3

沈悦, 周奎省, 张金梅. 异质有限理性预期与住宅价格动态反馈机制系统仿真[J]. 经济理论与经济管理, 2010, (9): 20-28.

SHEN Yue, ZHOU Kui-sheng, ZHANG Jin-mei. DYNAMIC STATE FEEDBACK MECHANISM BETWEEN HETEROGENEOUS BOUNDEDLY RATIONAL EXPECTATION AND THE REAL ESTATES PRICE[J]. Economic Theory and Business Management, 2010, (9): 20-28.

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