经济理论与经济管理 ›› 2010, Vol. ›› Issue (12): 56-63.

• 国际经济 • 上一篇    下一篇

欧元区主权债务期限结构的实证分析

秦凤鸣, 王旭   

  1. 山东大学经济学院, 济南, 250100
  • 收稿日期:2010-09-16 出版日期:2010-12-16 发布日期:2012-03-01

AN EMPIRICAL STUDY ON SOVEREIGN DEBT MATURITY STRUCTURE IN EURO-ZONE

QIN Feng-ming, WANG Xu   

  1. School of Economics, Shandong University, Jinan 250100, China
  • Received:2010-09-16 Online:2010-12-16 Published:2012-03-01

摘要: 本文通过对欧元区成员国长期债务占总债务比重与各国整体宏观经济指标相关关系的实证分析表明,欧元区各国以GDP与税收比、债务与GDP之比所描述的当期融资能力与长期债务比例呈显著负相关,由于非对称冲击的作用,各国体现出不同的特征。本文同时构建了一个政府债务效用函数的二期模型,说明主权债务期限结构安排可以通过宏观调控进行跨期平滑,以防止主权债务危机的发生。

关键词: 主权债务期限结构, 非对称冲击, 跨期平滑, 收敛

Abstract: This paper makes an empirical study on member counties in Eurozone for the correlation between long-term sovereign debt percentage in total debt and macroeconomic index,the main finding shows that,current financing ability based on tax income of GDP radio and debt of GDP ratio has significant negative correlation to long-term debt,every country within Eurozone embodies in different features because of asymmetric shock effect.This paper also builds a governmental debt utility function model in order to indicate that sovereign debt maturity structure arrangement could be intertemporal smoothing by macro-regulatory in preventing debt crisis.

Key words: sovereign debt maturity structure, asymmetric shock, intertemporal smoothing, convergence

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