关键词: 人民币升值, 农产品进出口, VAR模型

Abstract: Through the empirical analysis with monthly data from July 2005 to July 2009,the article concludes that the influence of RMB appreciation on agricultural products'import and export,including appreciation expectation and real appreciation.Generally speaking RMB appreciation will improve import and export of agricultural products,but the degree of influence fluctuates according in accordance with the variation of importers-exporters'appreciation expectation.The maximum contribution of RMB exchange rates to import-export's predicted error of agricultural products is 11.9% and 29.6%.Agricultural products'import and export are both comparatively stable.The maximum contribution of agricultural products import-export predicted error is 19.5%.In order to improve agricultural products'import and export,the government should take measures to keep RMB exchange rate stable or maintain a slow appreciation,to guide the appreciation expectation of importers and exporters,help import-export companies grow stronger and bigger,and to reduce the impact of exchange rate fluctuation to agricultural products import and export.

Key words: RMB appreciation, agricultural products’import-export, VAR modal