经济理论与经济管理 ›› 2009, Vol. ›› Issue (12): 5-12.

• 经济热点 •    下一篇

总需求和总供给冲击对我国失业和产出动态关系的影响分析

方福前, 孙永君   

  1. 中国人民大学经济学院, 北京, 100872
  • 收稿日期:2009-10-10 出版日期:2009-12-16 发布日期:2012-03-01
  • 基金资助:
    国家社科基金重点项目(09AJL001);中国人民大学“985”工程中国经济研究哲学社会科学创新基地项目

IMPACT OF AGGREGATE DEMAND AND AGGREGATE SUPPLY SHOCKS ON CHINA'S DYNAMIC RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN UNEMPLOYMENT AND OUTPUT

FANG Fu-qian, SUN Yong-jun   

  1. School of Economics, Renmin University of China, Beijing 100872, China
  • Received:2009-10-10 Online:2009-12-16 Published:2012-03-01

摘要: 在我国的失业产出关系中,短期内,总供给冲击是产出波动的主要来源,总需求冲击则是失业波动的主要来源,总需求冲击和总供给冲击共同破坏了产出失业之间反向变化关系,但是总需求冲击的破坏作用更多一些。在长期,总需求冲击对产出没有影响,总供给冲击对产出有显著的正的影响,总需求冲击在长期对失业没有影响,但总供给冲击在长期会对失业产生不利影响,即正的供给冲击的累积影响所带来的产出增加在长期使我国的失业率上升。

关键词: 总需求, 总供给, 冲击, 失业, 产出

Abstract: In the short run,aggregate supply shock is the main source of output fluctuation and the aggregate demand shock is the main source of unemployment fluctuation.The aggregate supply and demand shocks jointly destroy the reverse relationship between unemployment and output and the aggregate demand shock does more.In the long run,the aggregate demand shock has no impact on output and the aggregate supply shock has significant impact on output;the aggregate demand shock has no impact on unemployment and the aggregate supply shock has adverse impact on unemployment.This is to say,the accumulative positive supply shock contributes to the rise of the unemployment rate.

Key words: aggregate demand, aggregate supply, shock, unemployment, output

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