关键词: 名义资本账户开放, 实际资本账户开放, 卡尔曼滤波

Abstract: Accurate judgment of opening level of capital account in China is fundamental premise of correlatively theoretical research and decision-making analysis.When estimating the opening level of China's capital account from both name and reality,we find that:(1) Current nominal capital supervision level in China is medium,but practical opening level of capital account is much higher than that of nominal one;(2) Considering bigger arbitraging space at present,the effectiveness of capital supervision is hard to maintain in the long term even though there is more rigorous supervision;(3) Although reinforcing capital supervision is difficult to control practical arbitraging capital flow,gradual loose of capital supervision measure tends to result in rapid enhance of practical capital fluidity,which has led to the "dilemma" of current capital supervision policy in China.

Key words: openness of nominal capital account, openness of practical capital account, the Kalman filtering