Table of Content

16 January 2021, Volume 41 Issue 1

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NEW STAGE OF URBANIZATION: CITIZENIZATION OF MIGRANT AGRICULTURAL POPULATION AND FARMERS

HONG Yinxing, YANG Yuzhen, WANG Rong

2021, 41(1):  4-16. 

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The reform of household registration and the acceleration of citizenization of migrant agricultural population were emphasized in the 14th fiveyear plan at the Fifth Plenary Session of the 19th CPC Central Committee. The citizenization of the migrant agricultural population can be evaluated from two aspects, including basic living conditions and basic public services. The evaluation of basic living conditions involves two aspects: First, employment is the basis of citizenization. Second, housing is the foundation of citizenization. In terms of basic public services, the evaluation also involves two aspects: One is equal right to education. The other is to enjoy equal social security system. From the 10 stage characterized with population transfer, urbanization is entering the 20 stage in the new era. With the promotion of modernization, China's urbanization will enter into the 30 stage in which farmers who have not entered the city will realize citizenization. In the 10 and 20 stage of urbanization, farmers created their own urbanization mode in small towns, while in the 30 stage of urbanization, a new mode of citizenization is created in the integration of urban and rural areas. To undertake the responsibility of citizenization of the migrant population, towns must have urban function to absorb the migrant agricultural population and their citizenization. The urbanization level of towns has become an important evaluation index of citizenization of the migrant agricultural population. Towns' urbanization has a problem of citizenization capacity construction, involving both the enhancement of citizenization capacity of farmers entering cities and the improvement of citizenization capacity of towns. The citizenization in the new era is governmentled. Instead of relying only on farmers themselves, active promotion and planning of the government, which is mainly manifested in the support and guidance of public finance, is also needed.

CHINA'S MACRO ECONOMY TOWARDS A NEW DEVELOPMENT PATTERN OF DOUBLE CIRCULATION——China's Macroeconomic Report 2020—2021

RUC Research Group of Macroeconomic Analysis and Forecast

2021, 41(1):  17-36. 

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China's macroeconomy; the Fifth Plenary Session of the 19th CPC Central Committee; new development pattern of double circulation; economic recovery; the 14th five year plan

INDUSTRIAL AGGLOMERATION AND ECONOMIC GROWTH QUALITY——An Empirical Analysis Based on Panel Data from 82 Countries Worldwide

GUO Weijun, HUANG Fanhua

2021, 41(1):  37-51. 

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This paper constructs the economic growth quality index system through five dimensions, and uses the entropy method to measure the economic growth quality index of 82 countries around the world. Based on this, the relationship between industrial agglomeration and the quality of economic growth is empirically studied. The study finds that the increase in manufacturing agglomeration and service industry agglomeration will help improve the quality of economic growth in a country, but the channels are different. Moreover, the impact of service agglomeration on the quality of economic growth is heterogeneous among different types of countries, that is, an increase in the degree of service industry agglomeration can significantly improve the quality of economic growth in nonOECD countries, but it does not significantly affect the quality of economic growth in OECD countries. In addition, FDI has a positive adjustment effect on the relationship between manufacturing agglomeration and the quality of a country's economic growth, and has a negative adjustment effect on the relationship between service industry agglomeration and the quality of a country's economic growth, while human capital level has a positive adjustment effect on the both. The conclusions of this paper have important reference value for how to formulate relevant industrial policies to promote highquality economic development.

EARNINGS INFORMATION DISCLOSURE, INVESTOR BEHAVIOR AND MARKET INSIDER TRADING

LI Xiaosheng

2021, 41(1):  52-64. 

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This paper takes the 20072017 earnings announcement within the quarterly, semiannual and annual reports as the research object, and uses the FamaMacBeth crosssectional regression to examine the insider trading behavior of the company executives and institutional investors. The findings are as follows: (1) The earnings announcement drift in the China's stock market has obvious asymmetry characteristics before and after the earnings announcement, and the stock price tends to overreact to “good (or bad) news” and underreact to “bad (or good) news” before (or after) the earnings announcement. (2) Before the earnings announcement, there was a significant positive correlation between the net cash flow of institutional investors and the company's unexpected earnings. (3) The earnings announcement drift has an obvious differentiation effect between different sectors. Before the earnings announcement, the main board market reacted to the “good news” weaker than the small and mediumsized board and the GEM; but after the earnings announcement, the phenomenon is totally opposite.

THE WELLBEING OF CHINA'S NEW RURAL PENSION SCHEME AND LOCAL POLITICAL TRUST

SUI Shumin, PENG XiaobingXI, AO Yun

2021, 41(1):  65-78. 

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The wellbeing of China's New Rural Pension Scheme（NRPS）has an important impact on enhancing political trust and governance capabilities. Using data of the China Family Panel Studies (CFPS)，this paper empirically analyses the impact of the NRPS on local political trust from the perspective of the farmers' trust in local public officials. The results shows that compared with the noninsured group, the political trust of the insured residents is significantly higher. After considering the endogenous issues such as missing variables and selfselection, the result is still robust. Moreover, heterogeneity analysis shows that the NRPS has significantly improved the trust level of the government among lowincome and middleincome families as well as those in the central and western regions. Furthermore, we investigates possible mechanisms of the effect, including “material benefits”, “social benefits” and “selfsatisfaction benefits”, and finds that the NRPS has promoted local political trust by increasing the material benefits, social benefits and selfsatisfaction benefits of the insured residents. However, in the long run, the NRPS has not shown a longterm positive significant impact on local political trust. This may be due to the gap between the actual security level of the NRPS and the expected security level of the people.

THE PREDICTABILITY AND SEGMENTATION OF CHINA'S BOND MARKET

LEI Chengyao, CHEN Liqing

2021, 41(1):  79-95. 

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This paper studies the insample and outofsample predictability of China's bond market index, term structure premium and exchange premium. Constructing 27 variables from macrolevel, marketlevel and microlevels and generating 6 principal components as prediction variables via principal component analysis (PCA), this paper finds that there is significant predictability in China's bond market on its composite index conditional on different proxies after stripping out special bonds. The prediction variable based on principal component extraction has a stronger forecasting ability, and some macroeconomic indicators and marketlevel indicators can predict the risk premium of bond market. The first principal component extracted based on 27 indicators has a strong predictive ability for term premium and exchange premium in the sample, but a poor predictive ability for outofsample. The conclusion of this paper shows that China's bond market is vulnerable to the impact of macroeconomy, and there is no great difference in market functions between the interbank market and the exchange market. The separation of the two markets deepens with the fluctuation of the bond market.

THE INFLUENCE OF THE DEREGULATION OF CITY COMMERCIAL BANKS' TERRITORIALITY PRINCIPLE ON BANKS PERFORMANCE：BASED ON THE GRAVITYDEREGULATION MODEL

SONG Chang, LI Xiaonan

2021, 41(1):  96-112. 

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In 2006, the China Banking Regulatory Commission gradually deregulated city commercial banks' territoriality principle, and “going out” became the development trend of city commercial banks. This paper combines the Gravityderegulation Model and deregulation policy, which overcomes the endogeneity problem to a certain extent. The results find that the geographical diversification of city commercial banks inhibited their performance. As the distance between headquarters and branches continues to expand, the return on assets and the return on equity further reduce. However, the larger the relative market share is, the higher the return on assets and the return on equity will be. The results show that due to the deregulation of the territoriality principle, city commercial banks show a development trend of geographic diversification, and the geographic diversification of city commercial banks has an inhibitory effect on their performance, which reflects the information asymmetry and agency problems between headquarters and offsite branches.