Table of Content

16 February 2021, Volume 41 Issue 2

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THE POTENTIAL GROWTH RATE TO ACHIEVE THE DEVELOPMENT GOAL OF 2035

HUANG Taiyan, ZHANG Zhong

2021, 41(2):  4-12. 

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The Fifth Plenary Session of the 19th Central Committee of the Communist Party of China set the longrange goal of reaching the level of moderately developed countries in GDP per capita by 2035. Therefore, measuring and answering whether and how to achieve the goal on schedule is of great significance for China to achieve the second centenary goal and to adhere to the “four selfconfidence”. Based on other economies experience of leapfroging or falling into the “middleincome trap”, this paper estimates the change of Chinas potential growth rate from 2021 to 2035. First, this paper simulates and sets the growth rate of major production factors in China according to the changes of major production factors of the economies that were in the same development stage of China and have leapfrogged or fallen into the “middleincome trap”. Second, using the growth accounting model of additional human capital to measure the potential growth rate of Chinas economy in the future under three different scenarios including baseline, optimism and pessimism, the possibility of Chinas 2035 development goal can be verified. Third, according to the contribution of the main factors to the potential growth rate, this paper puts forward the corresponding policy recommendations to achieve the 2035 development goal as scheduled.

BALANCE OF MIXEDOWNERSHIP EQUITY AND VIRTUALIZATION OF STATEOWNED ENTERPRISE: INHIBITION OR PROMOTION 

QI Huaijin, YU Yao, LIU Yanxia

2021, 41(2):  13-27. 

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Based on the “crowding out effect” of the existing financial asset allocation on main business in stateowned enterprises, this paper discusses the influence of nonstateowned and stateowned equity checks and balances on financialization from the mixedownership perspective. The study finds that there is a Ushaped relationship between the balance of mixedownership and the level of financial asset allocation, and the promotion effect is more obvious when nonstateowned shares exceed stateowned shares. The mediating effect test finds that, within the “ inhibition” range, the balance of mixed ownership reduces the level of financial asset allocation by alleviating the agency problem, while within the “promotion” range, the balance of mixed ownership improves financial asset allocation by intensifying the agency problem. Further research shows that, compared with longterm investment financial assets, the balance of mixed ownership is more sensitive to shortterm speculative financial assets. There is a linear negative correlation between the balance of mixedownership and the level of financial asset allocation in central enterprise. The relationship is still Ushaped in local stateowned enterprises. The Ushaped relationship between the balance of mixedownership and the allocation of financial assets only exists in industries of commercial competition. This study has certain reference value for the mixedownership reform and the theory and practice of financial asset allocation.

RESEARCH ON THE POVERTY REDUCTION EFFECT OF INFRASTRUCTURE——Based on the Investigation of Rural Roads

张亦然

2021, 41(2):  28-39. 

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 How to prevent the return to poverty after “targeted poverty alleviation”? The sustainable poverty reduction effect of infrastructure is of concern. Based on the Chinese Family Panel Studies (CFPS) microdatabase, this article uses instrumental variable to empirically estimate the impact of improved transportation infrastructure on poverty reduction in rural households. The study finds that the availability of roads significantly reduces the Engel Index of rural households, and the Engel Index of lowincome households declines more significantly. This shows that the poverty reduction effect of improved transportation infrastructure is significant. The results of the mechanism analysis show that after the roads connecting, the direct government subsidies received by rural households have increased significantly, the proportion of households engaged in agricultural production has decreased significantly, and the nonfarm payrolls of rural households have increased significantly. This suggests that the improvement of transportation infrastructure has played a role in reducing poverty through two channels: increased government subsidies and agricultural labor transfer.

A COMPARATIVE STUDY OF FINANCING PATTERN OF ENDOWMENT INSURANCE UNDER DIFFERENT FERTILITY RATES

WAN Chunlin, DENG Xiang, LU Zheng

2021, 41(2):  40-53. 

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 Theoretical studies generally show that as a financing pattern of endowment insurance, the funded system is superior to the payasyougo system from the perspective of capital per capita. This article analyzes whether the funded system is completely superior to the payasyougo system from the perspective of welfare economics with exogenous and endogenous fertilities. The theoretical model shows that: under a certain combination of parameters, either with exogenous fertility or endogenous fertility, there exists a contribution rate of pension that the social welfare under payasyougo system is higher than that under funded system. The numerical simulation shows that: the contribution rate of pension can make the social welfare under the payasyougo system higher. And in the case of exogenous fertility (which is in line with Chinas fertility policy), the social welfare is the highest when the contribution rate of payasyougo pension is around 12%; in the case of endogenous fertility (which is in line with developed countries fertility policy), the social welfare is the highest when the contribution rate of payasyougo pension is around 6%. The former value is similar to the existing research conclusions that Chinas contribution rate of payasyougo pension should be reduced to around 15%, and the latter value is similar to the current contribution rate of payasyougo pension in developed countries such as the United States (6.2%) and Japan (7.7%). The robustness test shows that: the conclusions of the numerical simulation remain as long as the parameter assignment is within a reasonable range. This paper provides theoretical support for the reduction of Chinas contribution rate of payasyougo pension.





HAS THE JOINT CREDIT SYSTEM OF BANKING INDUSTRY CONSTRAINED CORPORATE INEFFICIENT INVESTMENT——An Analysis Based on Ashare Companies

HUANG Feiming, TONG Chan

2021, 41(2):  54-69. 

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The joint credit policy issued by the China Banking and Insurance Regulatory Commission aims to restrain excessive financing activities of companies and improve the efficiency of funds. In order to test whether the system has achieved the expected results, this paper adopts the unbalanced panel data of Shanghai and Shenzhen Ashare listed companies from 2014 to 2018 to exam the influence of joint credit system on corporate inefficient investment. The empirical research shows that joint credit system has significant inhibitory effects on the inefficient investment (including underinvestment and overinvestment). Especially, the joint credit system has the strongest inhibitory effect on overinvestment. Further investigation shows that compared with stateowned, largescale, lowdebt, highprofit companies, the joint credit system has a more significant inhibitory effect on the inefficient investment (especially overinvestment) behavior of nonstateowned, smallscale, highdebt, lowprofit companies.

CAN STOCK MARKET LIBERALIZATION CURB CORPORATE TAX AVOIDANCE——A Quasiexperiment of ShanghaiHong Kong Stock Connect Program

ZHI Xiaoqiang, WANG Yao, HOU Deshuai

2021, 41(2):  70-84. 

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As an important part of Chinas financial supplyside reform, stock market liberalization has significantly changed the characteristics of Chinas capital markets trader structure, which may have a profound impact on the selfinterest behavior of listed firms. Based on the institutional background of “ShanghaiHong Kong Stock Connect Program”, this paper shows that the stock market liberalization can inhibit corporate tax avoidance. Through the mechanism test, it is found that the stock market liberalization not only helps to improve corporate governance and suppress the executives incentives for tax avoidance and rentseeking, but also improves the corporate information quality and increases the cost of tax avoidance, thus leading to a reduction in corporate tax avoidance. Further research shows that this effect is more significant for firms in regions with low tax collection and management intensity. Accordingly, the conclusion of this paper indicates that “ShanghaiHong Kong Stock Connect Program” can serve as an effective external governance mechanism, promoting the regulation of corporate behavior and helping improve the efficiency of tax collection and management. This provides a theoretical basis for further deepening the opening up of the financial market.

STOCK MARKET LIBERALIZATION AND VOLUNTARY INFORMATION DISCLOSURE——Tests Based on the Shanghai/ShenzhenHong Kong Stock Connect Program

TANG Jianxin, CHENG Limin, CHEN Dong

2021, 41(2):  85-97. 

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On the background of Shanghai/ShenzhenHong Kong Stock Connect Program, this paper studies the impact of stock market liberalization on voluntary information disclosure. Based on the data of Ashare listed companies from 2011 to 2017 and using the management performance estimation to represent voluntary information disclosure, this paper uses multiperiod DID model to investigate the causal relationship between the willingness (and accuracy) of voluntary information disclosure and stock market liberalization.The results show that under the premise of controlling other factors, the stock market liberalization improves the willingness and accuracy of voluntary information disclosure, and the results are still robust after the robustness test. The mechanism analysis shows that the stock market liberalization influences the willingness and accuracy of voluntary information disclosure through the effect of external information demand and internal management incentive. In particular, this paper finds that the stock market liberalization has different function for Ashare listed companies with different environment.

HOW CAN SMALL BUSINESSES IMPROVE THE INFORMATION COMMUNICATION PERFORMANCE——Social CRM Capabilities and Social Media Visibility

ZENG Xueyun, HAO Ninghua, SHI Zhun

2021, 41(2):  98-112. 

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The information communication capabilities of small businesses regarding social media as a resource will significantly improve the publics perception to social presence of their brands. This paper proposes a performance indicator of information communication named social media visibility, and confirms a new analytical framework of customer relationship management (CRM) capability, which includes six factors in three dimensions (information generation, information dissemination and responsiveness). With questionnaire survey and the actual operational data, this paper finds that the capability factors that promote small businesses social media visibility are: generating information frequently, disseminating information based on prize, and response capability based on service. The moderating effect shows that small businesses run by young owners have a stronger promoting effect of social CRM capability on visibility. These conclusions are of significance for small businesses to improve their survival and development.