Table of Content

16 July 2020, Volume 40 Issue 7

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NEGATIVE IMPACT AND RISK ASSESSMENT OF COVID19 EPIDEMIC ON CHINESE MANUFACTURING ENTERPRISES’ GVC EMBEDDEDNESS

ZHEN Zhen, WANG Fengbin

2020, 40(7):  4-16. 

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To the operation of Global Value Chain(GVC),the COVID19 epidemic is not only a shortterm impact,but also a longterm test.This brings about an urgent research question:in its process from sudden outbreak to normalization,and finally to the end,what negative impacts will the COVID19 epidemic have on the GVC embeddedness of Chinese manufacturing enterprises?By reviewing GVC theory,this paper analyzes the value distribution and pressure sources of latecomer manufacturing enterprises who embedded in GVC,explores their embedded costs,and points out that the COVID19 epidemic will suddenly impact their cash flow,normally impact their product cost,longtermly increase their opportunity cost on GVC embeddedness,and thus result in the increasing risks of bankruptcy,being squeezed out of GVC,and being restructured out of GVC.Based on the identification of negative impact sand the risk assessment,this paper abstracts and extricates the turning points of intervention policies,demonstrating the salience of transformation supporting policies over financial bailout ones,the salience of recovering logistics policies over resuming work and production ones,and the salience of price stabling policies over tax reducing ones.Based on the inclination of Chinas current intervention policies,which mainly focus on financial bailout and transformation support while neglect standards and rules,this paper suggests to strengthen the proactive guidance and adaptation on developing new standards and rules for GVC.Further,based on the complex impacts of intervention policies formulated by other countries on the Chinese firms' embeddedness in GVC,this paper posits to systematically identify international political risks and thus improve risk prevention and control.

COMPARATIVE RESEARCH ON CHINA'S FISCAL AND TAX POLICIES IN RESPONSE TO PUBLIC HEALTH EMERGENCIES

BAI Yanfeng, TANG Yining

2020, 40(7):  17-29. 

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In the context of the modernization of national governance system and national governance capacity,this paper mainly uses the policy analysis method to review China's fiscal and tax policies during the SARS epidemic in 2003 and the COVID19 epidemic and selects three perspectives for policy analysis:the degree of policy emphasis,the degree of policy resonance and the use of big data on national governance.The study finds that,compared with SARS,the fiscal and tax policies during the COVID19 epidemic have the following changes:(1) the overall frequency of the fiscal and tax departments issuing policies is higher,the frequency of policies is more synchronized with the changing situation of the epidemic,and the policy contents are more phased and targeted;(2) the degree of coordination and cogovernance between fiscal and tax departments and other government departments,the degree of coordination and cogovernance among fiscal and tax departments at different levels was enhanced;(3)the ability of fiscal and tax departments to use big data to assist efficient decisionmaking and precise decisionmaking was improved.Hence,China's fiscal and tax policies in response to public health emergencies are being steadily optimized and have become an indispensable “booster” in the process of national governance modernization.

GAP BETWEEN REAL INCOME AND SELFPERCEIVED FAIR INCOME AND PERCEPTION OF DISTRIBUTIVE JUSTICE

ZHOU Huijun, SHEN Ji

2020, 40(7):  30-42. 

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 Based on China General Social Survey(CGSS) Data,this paper explores the correlation between the gap between real income and fair income and micro perception of distributive justice.Our results confirm an inverted “Ushape” relationship between the two.As the actual annual income increases towards the selfperceived fair income from below,perception of distributive justice is ascending constantly,and then reaches the peak when real income is around fair income.After that,as real income continues to increase,perception of distributive justice no longer continues to rise and starts to fall instead.This relationship is robust after we change our model setting and the form of control variables.In addition,heterogeneity analysis reveals that education,work status and inequality attribution of the respondents have a regulatory effect on the relationship between the two.This study offers a positive evidencebased foundation on how to improve residents' perception of distributive justice.

STRUCTURE OF FISCAL EXPENDITURE AND ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT——A New Interpretation of Wagner's Law

QI Changhou, YUE Xi ming

2020, 40(7):  43-57. 

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The scale and structure of fiscal expenditure reflect the scope of activity and the tendency of policy choice of a government.Wagners Law is one of the most important theory of fiscal expenditure.This paper uses the crosssection data of GFS and WDI in 2011 to verify the establishment of Wagner's Law from the relative scale and structure of government fiscal expenditure,and provides suggestions to optimize fiscal expenditure structure of China through international comparison.According to the definition of Wagner's Law,we define Wagner Coefficient as the coeffient of regressing the proportion of fiscal expenditure in GDP on the logarithm of GDP per capita and test Wagner's Law.The results show that total fiscal expenditure's Wagner Coefficient is 371,indicating that economic development is positively related to the relative expansion of total fiscal expenditure.In the Wagner Coefficient,economic development expands spending on health care,education and social protection,reduces spending on public order and security,housing and community facilities.From the perspective of fiscal expenditure scale contribution,social security expenditure's contribution is the largest,at 7166%,while economic affairs expenditure's contribution is the lowest,at -738%.We believe that the Wagner's Law mainly exists on the positive relationship between social security expenditure and economic development.

CAN INTERNET USAGE IMPROVE THE LEVEL OF CREDIT FOR FARMERS——Empirical Research Based on CFPS Panel Data

LIU Song, WEI Binhui, SU Keyu

2020, 40(7):  58-72. 

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Based on the panel data of three phases of China Family Panel Studies from 2014 to 2018,this paper uses the Conditional Recursive MixedProcess(CMP) model and instrumental variable model of joint estimation to analyze the effect of Internet usage on the credit level of rural households,and uses the doublerobust IPWRA model with modified sample selfselection bias to performs robustness test.The study finds that Internet usage has a significant positive impact on the level of credit for farmers,which can improve both the availability of credit and the scale of credit for farmers.For different loan channels,Internet usage has significantly improved both formal and informal credit access levels of farmers.The heterogeneity analysis shows that Internet usage plays a greater role in promoting the credit access level of farmers who are middleaged,with parttime jobs and in central and western regions.The mechanism analysis shows that Internet usage mainly improves the level of credit obtained by farmers through three effects including information search,social interaction and income growth.Therefore,implementing the “Internet Plus” policy and increasing the Internet coverage rate in rural areas are important policy measures to alleviate the chronic financing problems of rural households and win the battle against poverty.

RISK RATING AND COUNTERMEASURE RESEARCH OF COUNTRIES ALONG THE SILK ROAD ECONOMIC BELT

CHEN Jingquan, WANG Yongling

2020, 40(7):  73-87. 

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In order to improve the efficiency of investment cooperation with host countries,this paper builds a risk evaluation system for China's outward foreign direct investment and uses the inputoriented superefficiency DEA model from the perspective of input and output.The analysis method that combines with the Malmquist index conducts an empirical analysis of risks in the countries along the “Silk Road Economic Belt” from 2014 to 2018.The result shows that,from a static perspective,Central and South Asian countries present a higher level of investment risk.China should focus on the improvement of the host country's domestic investment environment.European countries,especially those in Central and Eastern Europe,are more suitable for Chinese companies to invest overseas,and the scale of cooperation should be further expanded.The investment risks of West Asian countries are polarized.China should pay close attention to the hidden risks of investment risks in highrisk countries,and establish necessary compensation mechanisms.From a dynamic perspective,according to the analysis of the Malmquist model,the risks in the countries along the “Silk Road Economic Belt” are gradually improving and the overall trend of national management is developing in a good direction.Based on the analysis results,this article puts forward relevant policy recommendations.

WHY DO ENTREPRENEURS NEED MEDIA PRESENCE——Empirical Test Based on Entrepreneurs' Microblog

SUN Tong

2020, 40(7):  88-99. 

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With the widespread use of social media,more and more entrepreneurs are moving from the backstage to the frontstage.This paper conducts an empirical test by using the data of entrepreneurs' Sina weibo of Chinese listed companies from 2010 to 2017.The results show that:(1) hightech enterprises prefer entrepreneurial media presentation;(2) the entrepreneurial media presentation can improve the stock liquidity of enterprises,with the increase in the number of microblogs,the stock liquidity increases more significantly;(3) based on the analysis of the contents of entrepreneurs' micro blogs,it is found that “personalized micro blogs” are more conducive to improving stock liquidity than “disclosed micro blogs”; both positive tone and negative tone can lead to the improvement of stock liquidity.The conclusion of this paper provides an important reference for the entrepreneurs' behaviors in the information age.

CONSTRUCTION AND ANALYSIS ON THE EVALUATION INDEX SYSTEM OF MODERNIZED ECONOMIC SYSTEM OF RESOURCEBASED ECONOMY——A Case Study of Comprehensive Supporting Reform Pilot Zone for the Transformation of National Resourcebased Economy in Shanxi Province

LI Linge, WANG Yali, WANG Yuanyuan, ZHANG Lili

2020, 40(7):  100-112. 

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Constructing the modern economic system is important to realize the transformation of the development pattern of resourcebased economy.This paper defines the connotation of modernized economic system,constructs the evaluation index system of modernized economic system in accordance with the characteristics of the transformation of resourcebased economy from the five aspects of power system,industrial system,economic system,opening to the outside world and transformation of resourcebased economy,and evaluates the construction of modernized economic system in Shanxi Province by using the evaluation index system.This paper puts forward some countermeasures and suggestions for the construction of modernized economic system in the transformation of resourcebased economy from the aspects of innovation drive,optimization and upgrading of industrial structure,perfection of socialist market economic system and expansion of opening to the outside world.