Abstract: To the operation of Global Value Chain(GVC),the COVID19 epidemic is not only a shortterm impact,but also a longterm test.This brings about an urgent research question:in its process from sudden outbreak to normalization,and finally to the end,what negative impacts will the COVID19 epidemic have on the GVC embeddedness of Chinese manufacturing enterprises?By reviewing GVC theory,this paper analyzes the value distribution and pressure sources of latecomer manufacturing enterprises who embedded in GVC,explores their embedded costs,and points out that the COVID19 epidemic will suddenly impact their cash flow,normally impact their product cost,longtermly increase their opportunity cost on GVC embeddedness,and thus result in the increasing risks of bankruptcy,being squeezed out of GVC,and being restructured out of GVC.Based on the identification of negative impact sand the risk assessment,this paper abstracts and extricates the turning points of intervention policies,demonstrating the salience of transformation supporting policies over financial bailout ones,the salience of recovering logistics policies over resuming work and production ones,and the salience of price stabling policies over tax reducing ones.Based on the inclination of Chinas current intervention policies,which mainly focus on financial bailout and transformation support while neglect standards and rules,this paper suggests to strengthen the proactive guidance and adaptation on developing new standards and rules for GVC.Further,based on the complex impacts of intervention policies formulated by other countries on the Chinese firms' embeddedness in GVC,this paper posits to systematically identify international political risks and thus improve risk prevention and control.

Key words: Chinese manufacturing enterprises, embeddedness in GVC, COVID19 epidemic, negative impact mechanism, risk assessment

摘要： 对于全球价值链（GVC）运行，新型冠状病毒肺炎疫情（以下简称新冠疫情）不只是短期冲击，也是长期考验。由此产生一个亟待研究的问题：从突然暴发，到常态化，再到最终结束的发展过程中，新冠疫情会对中国制造企业的GVC嵌入产生何种负面影响？本文通过梳理GVC理论，分析后发制造企业GVC嵌入的价值分配和压力来源，剖析其嵌入成本，指出新冠疫情会突然冲击GVC嵌入企业的现金流，常态化影响其产品成本，长期化提高其嵌入GVC的机会成本，并由此引发破产倒闭风险、挤出脱链风险和重构脱链风险。基于负面影响机制的识别和风险研判，本文提炼和阐析了干预政策的作用点，论证了在缓解疫情冲击风险的诸多干预政策中支持转型相比金融纾困、畅通物流相比复工复产、稳定价格相比减免税费的重要性。基于当前中国干预政策存在重纾困转型、轻标准规则的不足，提出要加强对GVC新标准或新规则的前瞻性引导与适应；基于其他国家干预政策对中国制造企业GVC嵌入的复杂影响，提示要系统识别国际政治风险并加强风险防控。

关键词: 中国制造企业, GVC嵌入, 新冠肺炎疫情, 负面影响机制, 风险研判