Abstract: The scale and structure of fiscal expenditure reflect the scope of activity and the tendency of policy choice of a government.Wagners Law is one of the most important theory of fiscal expenditure.This paper uses the crosssection data of GFS and WDI in 2011 to verify the establishment of Wagner's Law from the relative scale and structure of government fiscal expenditure,and provides suggestions to optimize fiscal expenditure structure of China through international comparison.According to the definition of Wagner's Law,we define Wagner Coefficient as the coeffient of regressing the proportion of fiscal expenditure in GDP on the logarithm of GDP per capita and test Wagner's Law.The results show that total fiscal expenditure's Wagner Coefficient is 371,indicating that economic development is positively related to the relative expansion of total fiscal expenditure.In the Wagner Coefficient,economic development expands spending on health care,education and social protection,reduces spending on public order and security,housing and community facilities.From the perspective of fiscal expenditure scale contribution,social security expenditure's contribution is the largest,at 7166%,while economic affairs expenditure's contribution is the lowest,at -738%.We believe that the Wagner's Law mainly exists on the positive relationship between social security expenditure and economic development.

Key words:  , fiscal expenditure, GDP per capita, Wagner Coefficient, contribution

摘要： 财政支出规模和结构反映了一个政府为实现其职能所进行的活动范围和公共政策的倾向。研究财政支出最重要的理论之一就是瓦格纳法则。本文使用2011年GFS和WDI数据库的截面数据，从政府财政支出总额及其构成验证了瓦格纳法则的成立，并通过国际比较，为优化我国财政支出结构提供建议。根据以往文献对瓦格纳法则的定义，笔者把政府财政支出占GDP比重对人均GDP（对数值）回归得到估计系数，称为瓦格纳法则系数，据此考察瓦格纳法则。回归结果显示，财政总支出的瓦格纳法则系数为371。这表明经济发展与财政总支出规模之间存在显著的正相关关系。换言之，财政总支出占GDP比重随着经济发展有上升的趋势。分项财政支出占GDP比重对人均GDP对数值的回归结果显示，人均GDP与医疗保健支出、教育支出和社会保护支出之间成正比关系，但与公共秩序和安全、住房和社区设施支出之间成反比。在此基础上，笔者计算了各分项财政支出对瓦格纳法则系数的贡献度，其中以社会保护支出的贡献度最大（7166%），经济事务支出贡献度最低（-738%）。研究表明，瓦格纳法则成立的主要原因是社会保护支出与经济发展之间的正向关系。

关键词: 财政支出, 人均GDP, 瓦格纳法则系数, 贡献度