Table of Content

16 August 2020, Volume 40 Issue 8

Previous Issue    Next Issue

FORMATION AND EVOLUTION OF THE MONETARY POLICY SYSTEM IN SOCIALIST MARKET ECONOMY WITH CHINESE CHARACTERISTICS

LIU Wei, SU Jian

2020, 40(8):  4-11. 

Asbtract ( )   PDF (4219KB) ( )  

Related Articles | Metrics

With the development of the basic economic system of socialism with Chinese characteristics, the corresponding macrocontrol mechanism is also constantly improved. As an important part of the system, the monetary policy system has gradually evolved in the process of deepening reform and become an important part of a more systematic, mature and stable highlevel socialist market economic system. In terms of the ultimate goal and intermediate goal of monetary policy, monetary policy tools, monetary policy transmission mechanism and other aspects, it has gradually formed a policy system that adapts to the basic economic system of socialism with Chinese characteristics and has distinct Chinese characteristics. This paper discusses the formation, evolution and characteristics of Chinas monetary policy system since the reform and opening up.

CHINA'S MACROECONOMY UNDER THE IMPACT OF COVID19 EPIDEMIC: EXOGENOUS SHOCK, ADJUSTMENT AND FOUNDATION RECONSTRUCTION

2020, 40(8):  12-31. 

Asbtract ( )   PDF (10533KB) ( )  

Related Articles | Metrics

2020 is destined to be a very special year in the economic history of China and the world. The COVID19 epidemic has caused a major shock to China's macroeconomic operation and micro market players. The global trade and economic system have undergone the most serious “stop” since World War II. The main contents of this paper include two aspects: one is to assess the basic trend and recovery potential of China's economy under the impact of super epidemic situation; the other is to provide applicable policy suggestions for post epidemic economic recovery as well as mediumterm and longterm development based on the above assessment. This paper focuses on four core issues: first, the progress and nature of China's economic recovery at this stage; second, the main challenges and risks of China's economic recovery in the next stage; third, how to scientifically arrange a package of largescale policies and tools to produce ideal policy effects; fourth, whether the existing policy space is sufficient to cope with various risks and challenges, enhance resilience and achieve the foundation rebuilding. Based on the above analyses and assessments, and a simulation analysis of the economic selfadjusting power and macro policy pulling effect, this paper forms the forecast and prospect of China's macroeconomic core indicators in 2020, and then puts forward systematic policy suggestions.


THE IMPACT OF COVID19 EPIDEMIC ON CHINA'S ECONOMY: AN ANALYSIS FROM THE SHORTTERM RESPONSE AND LONGTERM PERSPECTIVE

CHEN Shiyi, GUO Junjie

2020, 40(8):  32-44. 

Asbtract ( )   PDF (7994KB) ( )  

Related Articles | Metrics

 This paper analyzes the shortterm and longterm effects of the COVID19 epidemic on China's economy from both the demand and the supply sides. On the demand side, based on theoretical analysis and the characteristics of the impact of the SARS epidemic on the economy, the total economic demand will recover in a short time with the end of the epidemic. But the epidemic will also exacerbate the downward trend in aggregate demand and household income. On the supply side, the epidemic will not only reduce the efficiency of labor resource allocation and aggravate the structural contradiction between labor supply and demand, but also significantly reduce China's capital investment. In the absence of economic intervention measures, it is likely to exacerbate the downward trend of China's capital investment and overall economic growth. Based on the theoretical analysis, the corresponding supply shock will also have a negative impact on China's longterm output. Based on the impact of the epidemic on China's demand and supply sides, in order to achieve the economic goal of an overall welloff society by 2020, more proactive fiscal and monetary policies need to be implemented.

TRANSREGIONAL INFLUENCE OF HOUSING PRICES ON HOUSEHOLD CONSUMPTION——Empirical Analysis Based on the Spatial Panel Data of 278 Cities in China

YU Huayi, WANG Kehan, HUANG Yanfen

2020, 40(8):  45-61. 

Asbtract ( )   PDF (9970KB) ( )  

Related Articles | Metrics

A theoretical framework on the transregional influence of housing prices on household consumption, is proposed based on housing wealth effect theory. In this framework, housing wealth effect is regionally heterogeneous, and regional housing price fluctuation can generate a chain reaction to household consumption in neighbor regions due to spatial diffusion of housing prices, transregional consumption of residents, and imitation of consumption. We adopt the Spatial Durbin Model to examine the regional heterogeneity of housing wealth effect and the transregional influence of housing prices on household consumption based on the panel data of 278 cities in China from 2000 to 2018. Results show the following: (1) Housing wealth affects China entirely. However, this effect is insignificant in western cities, and negative housing wealth affects core cities. (2) The transregional effects of housing prices on household consumption are distinct across different cities. Housing prices in eastern and core cities significantly and positively affect the household consumption of neighbor cities, whereas those of periphery cities significantly and negatively affect neighbor cities. (3) The household consumption among different cities includes spatial imitation. From the perspective of spatial linkage of housing prices and household consumption, policy recommendations are proposed to stimulate demand and regulate real estate market.

STUDY ON THE EFFECT OF REDUCING PENSION INSURANCE SOCIAL ACCOUNT PAYMENT RATE OF PUBLIC INSTITUTIONS ON FISCAL EXPENDITURE

CHEN Yang, ZHANG Jiwen, MU Huaizhong

2020, 40(8):  62-73. 

Asbtract ( )   PDF (6819KB) ( )  

Related Articles | Metrics

围绕养老保险体系更加公平和可持续发展的宗旨，结合供给侧改革降费率的要求，本文研究了机关事业单位并轨后统筹账户的财政支出水平和降费率后财政支出的变动。在理论分析的基础上构建数理模型定量分析发现，并轨后统筹账户的财政支出呈平稳缓慢地增长，延迟退休对降低财政支出的作用十分显著。缴费率降低到 16%以后，统筹账户养老金财政支出增加，统筹账户降费率的财政负担弹性约为-207。敏感性分析发现研究结论稳健性较好，指标参数的敏感性由强到弱依次为延迟退休政策、统筹账户养老金替代率、经济增长速度和非财政全额拨款单位人数占比。在此基础上本文提出了相关建议。

THE EVALUATION OF THE EFFECT OF EQUILIBRIUM TRANSFER PAYMENT ON LOCAL GOVERNMENTS ' INCOME BEHAVIOR——Based on the Dynamic Spatial Instrumental Variable Model and Spatial Durbin Model

DING Weirong, WU Junpei

2020, 40(8):  74-83. 

Asbtract ( )   PDF (5587KB) ( )  

Related Articles | Metrics

Based on countylevel panel statistics, using dynamic variable space tools and Spatial Durbin Model, this paper evaluates the incentive effect of equilibrium transfer payment from the perspective of local governments' income behavior. The results show that the equilibrium transfer payment has two effects on local governments' income behavior. From the direct effect, it alleviates the fiscal pressure of local governments and does not cause direct tax distortion on local governments. However, it can be seen from the indirect effect that the equilibrium transfer payment will lead to distorted tax competition among regions. Its tax base effect and tax rate effect offset each other, its impact on local governments' tax collecting efforts is not significant, and its impact on local governments' fiscal revenue behavior is neutral and not positive in terms of incentive effect.

MINIMUM WAGE, EXPANSION OF HUMAN CAPITAL AND FIRMS' MARKUPS

LI Zhen, ZONG Huijun

2020, 40(8):  84-97. 

Asbtract ( )   PDF (8020KB) ( )  

Related Articles | Metrics

Conducting a unified theoretical analysis，this paper takes minimum wage, expansion of human capital and firms ' markups into account. Meanwhile, this paper uses the Chinese Industrial Enterprises Database and 284 citylevel data from 1998 to 2013 to do empirical research. The conclusions show that: the increase of minimum wage could decrease the firms ' markups and reduce firms ' market power. However, the expansion of human capital weakens the negative effects. Further analysis shows that the minimum wage and the expansion of human capital have heterogeneous impacts on firms ' markups. Therefore, adjusting the minimum wage moderately and steadily and promoting quality of human capital will maintain firms' markups and competitiveness.

CAPITAL ACCOUNT LIBERALIZATION, CREDIT BOOM AND SYSTEMIC BANKING CRISIS

ZHU Yiming, PAN Qi

2020, 40(8):  98-112. 

Asbtract ( )   PDF (9728KB) ( )  

Related Articles | Metrics

This paper studies the impact of credit boom and capital inflows on systemic banking crisis under capital account liberalization. Using longpanel data from 1973 to 2016 of 89 countries and controlling multiple factors that affect the risk of bank crisis, this paper finds that capital account liberalization helps reduce the risk of bank crisis. Further research finds that FDI inflows can significantly reduce the risk of bank crises; the appropriate amounts of equity investment inflows can help enhance the stability of the banking sector, but when large amounts of inflows are accompanied by excessive credit expansion and asset bubbles, the risk of bank crisis increases dramatically; when the inflow of debt investment is low, there is no significant impact on the stability of the banking sector, but when it exceeds a certain scale, the risk of banking crisis increases significantly.