Abstract: 2020 is destined to be a very special year in the economic history of China and the world. The COVID19 epidemic has caused a major shock to China's macroeconomic operation and micro market players. The global trade and economic system have undergone the most serious “stop” since World War II. The main contents of this paper include two aspects: one is to assess the basic trend and recovery potential of China's economy under the impact of super epidemic situation; the other is to provide applicable policy suggestions for post epidemic economic recovery as well as mediumterm and longterm development based on the above assessment. This paper focuses on four core issues: first, the progress and nature of China's economic recovery at this stage; second, the main challenges and risks of China's economic recovery in the next stage; third, how to scientifically arrange a package of largescale policies and tools to produce ideal policy effects; fourth, whether the existing policy space is sufficient to cope with various risks and challenges, enhance resilience and achieve the foundation rebuilding. Based on the above analyses and assessments, and a simulation analysis of the economic selfadjusting power and macro policy pulling effect, this paper forms the forecast and prospect of China's macroeconomic core indicators in 2020, and then puts forward systematic policy suggestions.

Key words: China's macroeconomy in 2020, COVID19 epidemic, economic recovery, macrocontrol policies

摘要： 2020年注定是中国和世界经济史上极为特殊的一年。突如其来的新冠肺炎疫情对中国宏观经济运行和微观市场主体产生了剧烈冲击，全球经贸体系经历了第二次世界大战以来最为严重的一次“大停摆”。本文主要内容包括两大方面：一是判断超级疫情冲击下中国经济的基本走势与回升潜力；二是基于以上判断为疫后经济修复和中长期发展提供适用的政策建议。本文重点关注四个核心问题：第一，现阶段中国经济复苏的进展和性质；第二，下阶段中国经济复苏面临的主要挑战和风险点；第三，如何科学安排一揽子规模性政策和工具组合以产生理想政策效果；第四，现有政策空间是否足以应对各种风险挑战、增强韧性和实现基础再造。在以上分析判断的基础上，基于经济自我调整力量和宏观政策拉动效应的模拟分析，本文形成对2020年中国宏观经济核心指标的预测和展望，据此提出系统性政策建议。

关键词: 2020年中国宏观经济, 新冠肺炎疫情, 经济复苏, 宏观调控