Table of Content

16 September 2019, Volume 39 Issue 9

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CHINA'S INDUSTRIAL DEVELOPMENT FOR THE PAST 70 YEARS

GUAN Quan

2019, 39(9):  4-17. 

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This paper discusses the development of Chinas industry since 1949 in two periods: the planned economy period and the reform and opening up period. The reason for dividing it into two periods is that the development strategies, concepts, paths and achievements of these two periods are different. The former, dominated by stateowned enterprises and the advanced development of heavy industry, is inclined to introversive development strategy and extensive development concept. Although it has made considerable achievements, especially in establishment of a relatively complete industrial system which has laid a good foundation for further development, there are also some disadvantages, such as inefficiency, waste of resources, overstaffing and so on. Especially, the people's living standards have not been improved for a long time due to the neglect of light industry. After the reform and opening up, through the development of diversified ownership enterprises and the introduction of foreign capital, attaching importance to the role of market regulation, implementing an exportoriented development strategy, promoting the balanced development of light and heavy industries and participating in the international market competition, rapid economic development has been achieved, which has made China leap from a country with a very low per capita GDP ranking to the top which have great potential for further development. This paper also tries to summarize the experience of China's industrial development, hoping to be a reference for other countries.


FINANCIAL CENTER FORMATION AND FINANCIAL TALENT GATHERING

HE Xian1,XIONG Liang2

2019, 39(9):  18-29. 

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Financial talent gathering is a necessary condition for the formation of financial centers. First, this paper puts forward the dual distribution law of financial talents, that is, the accumulation and dispersion of financial talents. Then, from the perspective of the number of financial talents, the proportion of employed people, the spatial concentration and the density of talents, we analyze the distribution characteristics of financial talents in the world and Chinas major financial centers. Finally, from the perspective of talents, we analyze the construction of international financial centers in Shanghai, Beijing and Shenzhen, the construction of regional financial centers in Chengdu, Xi'an and Wuhan, and the conditions for the construction of characteristic financial centers in Hangzhou, and make relevant recommendations.

LOCAL ECONOMIC GROWTH TARGET MANAGEMENT—— A Triplefactor Framework of Theoretical Construction and Empirical Test

WANG Xianbin1HUANG Liangxiong2

2019, 39(9):  30-44. 

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Based on the government structure theory, this paper analyzes the Chinese local governments economic growth target formulation pattern. Theoretically, the paper puts forward the theoretical framework of vertical adjustment of temporal dimension and lateral response of spatial dimension in the implementation of target management of economic growth. In the empirical study, this paper finds that the local economic growth target has a positive response to the local economic growth and a positive strategic response to the economic growth target in other regions, while making strategic reverse adjustment to the national actual economic growth trend. At the same time, the adjustment of local economic growth target presents prominent heterogeneity, which is manifested in the difference of coastal and inland areas, the difference of the period before and after the financial crisis, and the difference of the cycle of the congress. Overall, the formulation of local economic growth targets appears radical, volatility and interaction. These findings can provide enlightenment for China's macroeconomic management practice and the steady and sustainable growth of regional economy.

THE EFFECTS OF MACROECONOMIC CONDITIONS ON ASSET PRICING FACTORS

XU Yue1,QIU Zhigang2,WANG Hefei2

2019, 39(9):  45-58. 

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To characterize the timevarying nature of asset pricing factors with macroeconomic conditions, this paper investigates how economic growth and inflation affect asset pricing models in Chinese market. We find that the asset pricing model conditional on macroeconomic conditions can significantly improve the explanatory power of the traditional CAPM model, and its pricing power is even better than that of the multifactor model. Further studies show that macroeconomic factors affect asset prices through two dimensions. First, most assets are more sensitive to market risks during the recession period, and their market betas are greater than those during recovery and overheating periods. Second, the mean and volatility of the marker betas of small market capitalization companies are greater than that of large companies, so small companies are riskier in the recession.


HIGH STOCK DIVIDENDS AND STOCK PRICE CRASH RISK: CURB OR AGGRAVATE

TANG Xuesong,ZHENG Yuxin,PENG Qing

2019, 39(9):  59-74. 

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 Based on the sample of Chinese listed companies during period 20032015, this paper studies the impact of high stock dividends on stock price crash risk. It arrives at the empirical results that high stock dividends could decrease stock price crash risk. Through further analysis, we find that the high stock dividends of growth enterprise market listed companies is not effective against the stock price collapse risk relative to the main board listed companies. On the one hand, the inhibitory effect of high stock dividends on the stock price crash risk is not affected by the companys financial situation or the reduction of the stock market. On the other hand, the duration of the impact of high stock dividends on stock price crash is far more than the average length of time that a Chinese investor holds any given stocks. Our findings enrich the research of the economic consequences of high stock dividends.

RESEARCH ON THE INTERACTION MECHANISM AND SUPPORTING POLICY IN MULTIPILLAR PENSION SYSTEM

CHENG Huan1, LIN Yi2

2019, 39(9):  75-88. 

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Establish a multipillar social security system is an important content of the 19th Party Congress Report. Promoting the different pension pillars coordinated development is the most significant task in deepening social security reform. This paper finds that there is a large space for the development of supplementary pension insurance through the calculation of the actual rate and replacement rate of basic oldage insurance. This paper tries to establish a transition channel between different pension insurance systems under a multi pillar structure by decomposing the present value and its rights of individual account funds. The research shows that it is essential that setting a vertical way to transfer for individual account funds and it might weaken the crowding out effect among the multi pillars system. As a result, it is beneficial not only to expand the coverage of supplemental pillars, but also to keep the coverage of the basic pension system steady.

DOES THE SYPHONAGE EFFECT EXIST IN THE COLLABORATIVE INNOVATION OF THE BEIJINGTIANJINHEBEI METROPOLITAN REGION —— From a Comparative Perspective with the Pearl River Delta

YAO Dongxu

2019, 39(9):  89-97. 

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This paper tries to verify the existence of the Syphonage Effect upon the collaborative innovation in the BeijingTianjinHebei metropolitan region (BJTJHE). Taking hightech enterprises that had been publicly listed between 2009 and 2015 in BJTJHE and the Pearl River Delta (PRD) as a sample, this paper aims to analyze the difference of R&D intensity among BJTJHE enterprises. As research shown, BJTJHE enterprises have much higher R&D intensity compared to those from PRD. Meanwhile, since a converging trend has been shown among multiple enterprises in terms of R&D intensity, the “Syphonage Effect” is nonexistent. This phenomenon is distinct from the polarization on R&D intensity between Shenzhen and Guangzhou enterprises in PRD.

RESEARCH ON IMPROVING INCENTIVE PRICE REGULATION OF CHINA'S POWER GRID

DUAN Qifei,WU Shan, XU Guangjian

2019, 39(9):  98-109. 

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This paper mainly studies on the policy framework of price regulation on power grid. By comparing different regulatory methods and their mixed forms, this paper summarizes regulatory models of major countries in the world into four major models, according to their regulation content and regulation period. Regulatory models of the United Kingdom and the United States are analyzed in detail. Based on theoretical and international practices, this paper points out that the model based on the rate of return regulation implemented in China is suitable for current development period. Subsequent reforms need to develop specific methods to deal with weak incentive caused by rate of return regulation and deviations caused by ex ante pricing. In the end, this paper puts forward two alternative paths for improving incentive effect.