Table of Content

16 June 2018, Volume 38 Issue 6

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ANALYSIS ON TECHNOLOGY UPGRADE AND EMPLOYMENT STRUCTURE IN CHINA#br#

SUN Wenkai,GUO Jie,ZHAO Zhong,TANG Can

2018, 38(6):  5-14. 

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Using a representative data set，this paper calculates the change of employment structure of labor market in urban China，and explains the change with a decomposition technologyWe find no significant decline of labor participation during the past decade in ChinaExcept for the routine manual occupation，the other three kinds of occupations expanded during the last ten yearsThis change is caused by both structure effect and propensity effectFor the absolute value，the amount of working in routine occupation in China is still much higher than that in the United States，which means that the potential impact of artificial intelligence technology may be larger in ChinaThis paper estimates the potential displacement effect of employment and predicts the industrial distribution of employment in the futureBased on these calculations and discussions，this paper proposes some policy suggestions for technology adoption and employment policy

THE OPTION BETWEEN SKIPGENERATION RAISING AND LABOR PARTICIPATION IN DELAYED RETIRING AGE POLICY——Based on Stochastic Wage Earnings#br#

ZHU Yanxia1,ZHU Hongbing2

2018, 38(6):  15-27. 

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Skipgeneration raising may crowd out the effect of delayed retiring age policy on promoting labor supplyIn order to verify the crowdingout effect，this paper firstly stimulates the changes of welfare due to early retirement of the female people who are approaching retiring age through building their lifecycle model includes consumption of them and their adult children who have infants under the assumption of stochastic wage earningsThis paper uses micro data of CHIP to estimate the growth rate of earning and earning risk for different education and occupation groupsThe results are applied to CHARLS data so as to provide evidence consistent with the model predictions，which include that the female people approaching retiring age who expect a lower growth rate or higher risk of earnings are more likely to choose early retirement when they confront grandchildren care needs，and after institutional retirement，their labor participation is more affected by adult childrens growth rate of earningIt also means that crowdingout effect will be produced by skipgeneration raising on delayed retiring age policy promoting female labor supply

INVESTMENT DECISIONMAKING BEHAVIOR UNDER THE UNCERTAIN SITUATIONS ON P2P PLATFORM

RUAN Sumei

2018, 38(6):  28-38. 

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To explore the lenders decisionmaking behavior in P2P online lending platform，the whole investment process is fully considered，including the bids select in the first stage and the investment scheme determination in the second stageIn addition，we investigate the consistency and rationality of decisionmaking behavior using the investment success rateWe conduct empirical analysis on Paipai lending data for nearly six yearsThe empirical results show that lenders are risk aversion，and tend to choose the secure bids with short duration，examined，and high history borrowing success rate in the first stageWhile in the second stage，they are riskseekers，and prefer highyield highrisk bids with long duration，unexamined，and low history borrowing success rateOur findings are interesting to indicate that lenders decisionmaking behavior in the first stage is more reasonable when compared to the second stage，which help to improve the success rate and effect of investment in P2P platform

RESEARCH ON THE MEDIATING EFFECT OF INFORMATION TECHNOLOGY ON THE OPTIMIZATION AND UPGRADING OF INDUSTRIAL STRUCTURE ——An Empirical Study Based on the Provincial Data#br#

CHANG Zhongze1,MENG Qian2

2018, 38(6):  39-50. 

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This paper tests the four mediating effectconsumption demand effect，innovation effect，labor endowment effect，labor productivity effect using the 31 provincial data from 1995 to 2012The empirical results show that information technology can effectively improves the development of the hightech industry in manufacturing industryIt is true that information technology can guide or force the industrial structure to change from laborintensive and resource intensive to knowledge intensive through four effects，but there is also an inefficient evolution of industrial structureIn addition，there are regional differences in the promotion effect of information technology on the transformation and upgrading of industrial structureThe promotion effect in the central and western regions is greater than that in the eastern regionAt the end of the paper，the relevant policy suggestions are put forward

THE MECHANISM RESEARCH OF INNOVATION，INDUSTRIAL STRUCTURE ADJUSTMENT AND ECONOMIC GROWTH IN CHINA

HAN Jing,JIU Erke

2018, 38(6):  51-63. 

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As Chinas economy gradually goes into new normal，innovation will have a significant impact on economic growthBased on the review of
Schumpeterian competition and Aghions analytical method about innovation，this paper builds a theoretical model of China to explain the interacted relationship of innovation，adjustment of industrial structure and economic growthTheoretical model finds the mechanism about the influence of innovation on economic growthThe mediation mechanism is the adjustment of industrial structureBy empirically analyzing Chinese provincial panel data from 1998 to 2015，we find the estimation result of our model is well consistent with the conclusions from theoretical studyInnovation has a significant impact on economic growth by mediation of industrial structure adjustmentThis conclusion is robustCompared with the eastern region，the influence of economic growth on innovation is bigger in central and western regionsEastern region has an advanced stage of innovation and it is easy to encounter bottlenecksIn order to realize Chinas long economic growth，we need highlight the role of innovation in economic growthThe process that innovation drives industrial upgrading and transformation must contain appropriate institutional environment

DOES THE DEVELOPMENT OF INTERBANK BUSINESS IMPROVE THE EFFICIENCY OF CHINESE COMMERCIAL BANKS

HUANG Bo,LUO Yu,CHEN Liqing

2018, 38(6):  64-79. 

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This paper studies the effect of interbank business on the bank efficiency by using Tobit modelWe use 16 listed Chinese commercial banks data from 2005 to 2013 as sample to estimate the bank efficiency by the Stochastic Frontier Approach，and differentiates the distinct impacts of interbank business according to the bank scales and time periodsIn full sample，the development of interbank business has both improved both the cost efficiency and the profit efficiencyHowever，both of the impact of interbank assets and interbank liabilities on efficiency are nonsignificant during 2005—2009After 2010，the interbank liabilities have a significant positive effect on the bank efficiencyFor the large stateowned banks，the development on interbank business has contributed great improvement to efficiency throughout the whole sample periodFor the jointequity commercial banks，both interbank assets and liabilities have limited impacts on efficiency during 2005 and 2009，and the interbank liabilities improved the efficiency significantly after 2010

EDUCATION BACKGROUND AND HOUSEHOLD STOCK MARKET PARTICIPATION——An Empirical Analysis of CFPS statistics#br#

XIAO Duan,LV Yuxuan

2018, 38(6):  80-95. 

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According to the “participation puzzle”，we investigate the relation between education background and household stock holding using the CFPS (China Family Panel Studies) dataThis paper applies Logit model to demonstrate the positive influence of both schooling years and economy or management learning experience on stock holdingFurther PSM model which focuses on residents major background finds that in household decision making，the significance and degree of the effect of family members major background is restrained by the whole familys education levelThe authority of traditional family decision maker gets weaken with the increase of family education level，and family members finance knowledge may be overvalued or underestimated due to his education position in familyGiven this，people tend to make decision together in a well  educated familyOn one hand，individual who owns the longest schooling years and most professional knowledge may not dominate family investment definitely，on the other hand

，family can invest indiscreetly because of members education backgroundFor the irrational behaviors family investor and conversion from “negative participation” to “positive participation”，this paper offers some realistic solving methods

MANAGERIAL POWER，INTERNAL AND EXTERNAL MONITORING AND CORPORATE RISKTAKING#br#

SONG Jianbo1,WEN Wen1,WANG Dehong2,SHEN Wei1

2018, 38(6):  96-112. 

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Using a sample of 2005—2014 Chinese A share companies listed in Shanghai and Shenzhen stock exchanges，this paper investigates the impact of managerial power on corporate risktakingThe results show that the greater the power of management，the more obvious the tendency of risk aversion and the companies risktaking level becomes relatively lowEffective internal and external monitoring mechanisms can weaken the influence of managerial power on corporate risktakingChannel analysis reveals that managerial power reduces corporate risktaking by weakening companies financing level，but it shows no significant impact on corporate investment activitiesThis paper extends the literature on the economic significance of managerial power and the determinants of corporate risktakingThis paper has significant practical values on guiding managers to take risks positively，strengthening the construction of internal and external governance system and safeguarding minority interests of listed companies