Table of Content

15 January 2017, Volume 37 Issue 1

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MACROECONOMY UNDER THE DUAL BOTTOMLINE OF STABLE GROWTH AND RISK PREVENTION——Chinas Macroeconomic Analysis and Forecast in 2016—2017

RUC Research Group of Macroeconomic Analysis and Forecast

2017, 37(1):  5-25. 

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In 2016, the macroeconomy exhibits the trend of shortterm bottom stabilization and converging bubbles As the potential growth level shifting downward, combined with cyclical, structural, and tendency factors, together they are still causing tremendous downward pressure, and will lead to continuous bottomformation in the upcoming year of 2017 However, the depth and length of bottomformation are related to world economy recovery, growth level of Chinas economy, cultivation of new industries and economy drivers, adjustment of real estate cycles, fluctuations of politicaleconomy cycles, solutions to potential economic risks and many other factors Meanwhile, domestic debt scale has been skyrocketing, driven by the “debtinvestment” driving pattern; this highlights the structural debt risks, as generalized government debt level exceeding the international warning line The fundamental problems of Chinas economy are mostly correlated with debt risks, such as the converging asset bubbles, are actually the currencies allocated by the “debtinvestment” driving pattern, now circulating in the stock, bond, and real estate market; while debt risks may very well be the trigger Chinas economic crisis Judging from current situations, China is capable of preventing crisis, with sufficient attention on factors that may be the causes On one hand, it is critical to establish a correct understanding and coping mechanism of economic crisis; on the other hand, to establish a risk mitigation mechanism before debt risks evolve to crises.

THE PATH AND BREAKTHROUGH OF CROSSING THE MIDDLEINCOME TRAP IN CHINA——Based on Williamson Turning Point and Regional Income Gap

ZHOU Wen1,ZHAO Guo-qing2,XU Bo2

2017, 37(1):  26-38. 

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The essence of the middleincome trap is that the income level correlate nonlinearly with its growth rates The Williamson turn point determines whether China would fall into the trap Based on the framework of spatial Gini coefficient, this paper applies spatial autocorrelation theory to quantify the contribution of implicit factors This paper also develops the model of middleincome trap based on the Williamson invertedU curve The results show that regional income gap has the relationship of invertedU with GDP per capita, or more precisely, that of Sshaped curve The results from the smooth transition regression model indicate that the current turnpoint is 4 18930 US dollar per capita China has already passed this point since 2005 However China has not entered a “high regime” path This paper suggests that China further implements the strategy of high starting point of regional harmonious development, forms a complete set of sound macroeconomic policies, with deepening the reform of income distribution system.


DOES EDUCATION IMPROVE MIGRANT WORKERS HAPPINESS——Empirical Evidence from China Employeremployee Survey of 2015

LI Dan-dan

2017, 37(1):  39-54. 

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Under the background of the accelerating process of urbanization, this paper discusses whether education has brought the migrant workers nonmonetary benefits of happiness Based on “China Employeremployee Surveys” (CEES) data in 2015, this study respectively applies the identifying strategy of the single equation regression and SUR model The result indicates that the level of education has a moderate negative effect on migrant workers happiness in China The testing results of the mediation effect show that overtime work, promotion and the sense of integrating into the city have significantly strengthened the negative effect on this effect, whereas social security has declined this negative effect.


WILL INTEREST RATE LIBERALIZATION BE THE SOLUTION TO FINANCING PROBLEM OF SMES

HUANG Bo1,LIU Jun-qi2

2017, 37(1):  55-67. 

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Based on prospect theory and the theory of mental accounting, this paper tries to figure out what effects behavioral factors of banks would have on their credit decision about whether they would provide loan to an enterprise in certain size, through modeling the prospect of each credit decision of banks We find that, when banks are making credit decisions, behavioral factors will make banks prefer enterprises in bigger size to small and micro enterprises Then we analyze how credit concentration happens and the cause of small and micro enterprises financing problem from the point of view of behavioral finance theory Furthermore, we measure the influence of some certain factors, which are usually used to measure the credit risk of a certain loan, on the credit decisions of banks, and find that interest rate liberalization will help solve small and micro enterprises financing problem In addition, we provide some suggestions to small and micro enterprises, banks and the government to help relieve small and micro enterprises financing problem.

STUDY ON THE LISTING CORPORATIONS EFFECTIVENESS OF THE MARKET VALUE MANAGEMENT——An Empirical Analysis Based on the Performance of Corporate Mergers and Acquisitions#br#

XU Zhao

2017, 37(1):  68-83. 

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Due to the imperfect market and the existence of asymmetric information, this paper discusses whether the merger and acquisition can bring effective market value management through the creation of synergy effect This paper selects the M&A cases during 2007—2010 of Chinas listing Corporation as samples, and examines the relationship between the value creation of M&As and the efficiency of the market value management by using the event study and OLS empirical regression, and also the sample of different M&As types and enterprise properties are grouped to test The empirical results show that if the M&A has positive synergy effect on business performance in the next three years, it will bring a higher market value management to the listed companies Moreover, in the group samples test, we find that investors are more concerned about offsite acquisitions, M&A within the industry, private enterprises and enterprises with relatively dispersed ownership, and the synergistic effect from these M&A influence the market value management more significantly, which reflects there is a more significant effect in the market value management through these kinds of M&A

POVERTY, FINANCIAL DEVELOPMENT AND ECONOMIC GROWTH IN COUNTY REGIONS——An Empirical Test with System GMM

2017, 37(1):  84-94. 

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Based on the endogenous regional financial development theory, a dynamic panel data model is developed in this article, in addition to which, the factor of poverty is included to emphasize the nonlinear relationship between regional finance and economy On a sample of objects down to the county level, system GMM is employed to test the different effects of finance on economy between poor and nonpoor counties The findings suggest that financial development in credit is positively associated with economic growth within both poor and nonpoor counties Financial development in savings is different within developing and developed regions, that is, savings is not correlated with economy in nonpoor counties, and it is negatively associated with economic growth in poor counties It is concluded that the theory of regional credit rationing and regional credit creation is more suitable to explain the financial development in poor regions, and the negative effect of savings is resulted from its outflow and low efficiency, which is related to the banking dominated by interregional institutions in China.

WILL URBANIZATION INCREASE RESIDENTIAL ENERGY DEMAND——A Literature Review

WEI Chu

2017, 37(1):  95-109. 

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City is the major energy user and emission source in China, which accounts for 70% of total energy consumption To achieve the sustainable development, China need to further boost the urban development while lower the huge energy demand Will the accelerating urbanization process lead to higher energy demand? This issue raises intensive attention from the decisionmakers, public, and academic society Most previous studies concluded that the urbanization is positively associated with household energy demand However, the conclusion is based on aggregated data in a static framework Based on some observation worldwide and evidence among Chinas provinces, we question this point We intensively screen the literature and classify them into “topdown” and “bottomup” perspective We conclude that there are three research areas need to be further enhanced First, it is necessary to combine different viewpoints and examine the decisionmakers response to the dynamic change result from the urbanization Second, the microlevel data and experimental methods are needed for causal inference and policy assessment Third, scholars suggest to study Chinas case using modern analytical methods and to summarize the general experience to form the “Chinese pattern”.