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Table of Content

    16 February 2017, Volume 37 Issue 2
    FINANCIAL INCLUSION STRATEGIES IN THE CONTEXT OF INCLUSIVE GROWTH
    BEI Duo-guang,ZHANG Rui
    2017, 37(2):  5-12. 
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    What is the inner link between inclusive growth and financial inclusion? How to develop financial inclusion strategies in the background of inclusive growth? By making a review of these two concepts, this paper considers that financial inclusion is within the category of inclusive growth and is also a specific measure in the scope of finance of inclusive growth This paper analyzes the basic principle in financial inclusion which is guided by government and driven by market, and discusses how the government should develop financial inclusion strategies depending on Chinas national condition and international experience.
    RESEARCH ON THE TRANSMISSION MECHANISM AND EFFECTIVENESS OF THE NEGATIVE INTEREST RATE POLICY
    FAN Zhi-yong,FENG Jun-xin,LIU Ming-zhe
    2017, 37(2):  13-22. 
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    After the subprime crisis, the global economy is mired in longterm stagnation The euro area and Japan have implemented the negative interest rate policy one after another Negative interest rate breaks the doctrine of the zero lower bound Focusing on the transmission channels and the effectiveness of negative interest rate policy, this paper finds that negative interest rate policy has an immediate impact on market interest rates, exchange rate and other financial market variables But in terms of the recovery of the real economy, the effectiveness of the negative interest rate policy relies on whether it can effectively increase the demand and supply of credit.
    ENVIRONMENTAL REGULATION AND POLLUTION HAVEN——An Empirical Analysis Based on Panel Threshold Regression of Chinese Provincial Data
    HUI Wei,ZHAO Guo-qing
    2017, 37(2):  23-33. 
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    The paper examines the relationship between environmental regulation, environmental pollution and the existence of pollution haven hypothesis in Chinas province level based on the environmental Kuznets curve framework, by using the data of industrial waste water, industrial sulfur dioxide, industrial smoke (powder) dust emissions of Chinas 30 provinces, autonomous regions and municipalities to construct the environmental pollution intensity index and environmental regulation intensity index during 2010—2013, and adapting the panel threshold regression method The empirical analysis results suggest environmental regulation enforcement can reduce environmental pollution significantly Not only does the effects of pollution havens on foreign direct investment and export in China are related to different pollutant, but there is no monotone relationship between environmental regulation and environmental pollution in different environmental regulation implement and environmental pollution intensity provinces The results also show that there is a Ushaped relationship between environmental pollution and the provincial GDP per capita, which suggests that though it reduces along with the increase of the provincial GDP per capita, the strengthening of environmental pollution control is still urgent, since the environmental pollution level approaches its inflexion point now.
    EFFECTS OF ENVIRONMENTAL REGULATIONS ON THE EMPLOYMENT OF URBAN DUAL LABOR——Based on the Perspective of Labor Market Segmentation
    2017, 37(2):  34-47. 
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    Effects of environmental regulations on the employment of urban dual labor are different because of the urban labor market segmentation Based on the theoretical analysis of the impact of environmental regulations on the employment of urban dual labor, this paper empirically analyzes the impact of environmental regulations on the employment of urban dual labor and analyzes the threshold effect of the impact of environmental regulations on the employment of rural migrant workers using the panel data of 30 provinces from 1998 to 2014 The empirical results show as follows First, environmental regulations on the urban employment of rural migrant workers are seven times worse than the local urban employees Second, there are clear threshold characteristics between environmental regulations and employment of rural migrant workers When the degree of labor market segmentation above 2002 and between 1199 and 2002, environmental regulations have negative effect on the employment of rural migrant workers and the coefficient is -0116 and -0042 When the degree of labor market segmentation below 1199, environmental regulations have positive effect and the coefficient is 0106 This paper suggest the government should deepen the reform of system of census register to break the labor market segmentation and set up a unified labor market, strengthen vocational training and accumulate human capital, especially in central and western provinces to decrease the negative restraining effect of environmental regulations on the rural migrant workers and enhance the level of urbanization to boost the economic growth.
    A STUDY ON SYSTEMIC RISK OF CHINAS BANKS——Based on Three Macroprudential Stress Tests
    FANG Yi
    2017, 37(2):  48-66. 
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    Based on the traditional financial network model, this paper introduces the mechanism of bank deleveraging and fire sale which can be used to analyze two macroeconomic shocks on the systemic risk of banks industrial system In the perspective of the stress tests about the default of real estates loans, this paper finds that contagion risk arising from the default of real estates loans is the crucial source of systemic risk The contagion loss ratio and deleveraging times show that the contagion risk of Chinas banks was highest in 2007, then it rapidly decreased The results of parameters sensitivity analyses demonstrate that fire sale is less relatively important than deleveraging in the network model for the contagion risk, and bankruptcy is less than fire sale The second test which is about the default of local government financing platforms (LGFP) loans shows that large commercial banks (LCBs) is less affected by LGFPs loans than jointstock commercial banks (JSCBs) and city commercial banks (CCBs) Additionally, this paper finds that there exists a probability default (PD) threshold When LGFPs loans PD is above the threshold, banks losses and bank failure numbers increase sharply The last test which is about the single bank failure highlights the advantages of this papers network model compared with the traditional network model In addition, the test shows that the mismatch between systemic importance and systemic vulnerability is very crucial for Chinas stable financial system.
    RESEARCH ON FUND PERFORMANCE SPILLOVER EFFECT AND ITS INFLUENCE ON CHINAS OPENEND FUND FAMILYS STARMAKING BEHAVIOR
    WANG Jin-zhong1,ZHANG Xia-qing2
    2017, 37(2):  67-77. 
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    This paper selects all equity openend fund from the first quarter of 2011 to the fourth quarter of 2015 as sample to test the spillover effect, and studies its impact on fund familys starmaking behavior Based on a panel data model, this paper finds that there is an overflow effect for “star fund” to the entire fund management companies, but “junk fund” does not have a reverse effect This asymmetry has a profound impact on fund familys starmaking behavior The probability of the next phase of the star fund is greatly improved in a large fund family with none of pre star funds and high excess returns standard deviation.
    THE IMPACT OF FDI INTRA AND INTER INDUSTRY SPILLOVERS ON TFP CHANGE IN CHINESE MANUFACTURING SECTOR
    JIANG Zhang-sheng
    2017, 37(2):  78-87. 
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    In the context of Made in China 2025, how to take advantage of FDI to promote the total factor productivity, technical efficiency and technical level of manufacturing sector is especially important This paper takes panel data of 26 industries in the manufacturing sector from 2005—2014 to analyze FDI technology spillovers on the total factor productivity change The result shows that the intra industry direct spillovers can effectively promote the total factor productivity and technological efficiency of domestic manufacturing sector, the intra industry indirect spillovers will erode the living space which can hinder the growth of total factor productivity, technical efficiency and technical level of domestic manufacturing sector, the inter industry backward correlation degree has some significant and large positive spillover effects on the total factor productivity and technical efficiency, and the inter industry forward correlation degree has some significant but weak negative spillover effects on the total factor productivity and technical efficiency.
    TURNOVER COST AND FIRMSPONSORED TRAINING
    LU Zhen-peng
    2017, 37(2):  88-97. 
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    This paper discusses the relationship between employee turnover costs and firmsponsored training Turnover costs are workers private information which follows certain distributions Firms offer different wages to inside workers and outside workers Firms onthejob training influences workers productivities as well as turnover costs The “compressed wage structure” (CWS) theory in the literature only consider wageproductivity differential This paper considers a labor market with duopolistic employers, where turnover rats and training levels are endogenous It is suggests that CWS is not the only reason that firms invest in general training Higher turnover rate can be associated with more training, which means efficient training and efficient allocation may be gotten both at the same time More sophisticated implications are offered for enterprises management and social policies, for instance, the dual training system in Germany and some other countries.

    IDENTIFICATION AND MOBILITY OF THE INCOMEORIENTED MULTIDIMENSIONAL POVERTY——A Study Based on China Family Panel Studies Data#br#
    ZHANG Zhao,YANG Cheng-yu,YUAN Qiang
    2017, 37(2):  98-112. 
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    This paper constructs incomeoriented multidimensional poverty indices using income and nonincome dimensions like health, education, living conditions, hygienic environment and food expenditure Analysis of the identification, tracking and mobility of multidimensional poverty in rural China is conducted based on China Family Panel Studies(CFPS)data The results indicate that it is effective and efficient to identify and track rural household poverty only by income, education and living conditions, which are also the key factors determining the mobility of poverty In addition, the study suggests that policy makers should put more attention to the overall welfare level of poverty households and improve the poverty mobility to help those trapped in poverty.