Abstract: Effects of environmental regulations on the employment of urban dual labor are different because of the urban labor market segmentation Based on the theoretical analysis of the impact of environmental regulations on the employment of urban dual labor, this paper empirically analyzes the impact of environmental regulations on the employment of urban dual labor and analyzes the threshold effect of the impact of environmental regulations on the employment of rural migrant workers using the panel data of 30 provinces from 1998 to 2014 The empirical results show as follows First, environmental regulations on the urban employment of rural migrant workers are seven times worse than the local urban employees Second, there are clear threshold characteristics between environmental regulations and employment of rural migrant workers When the degree of labor market segmentation above 2002 and between 1199 and 2002, environmental regulations have negative effect on the employment of rural migrant workers and the coefficient is -0116 and -0042 When the degree of labor market segmentation below 1199, environmental regulations have positive effect and the coefficient is 0106 This paper suggest the government should deepen the reform of system of census register to break the labor market segmentation and set up a unified labor market, strengthen vocational training and accumulate human capital, especially in central and western provinces to decrease the negative restraining effect of environmental regulations on the rural migrant workers and enhance the level of urbanization to boost the economic growth.

Key words: labor market segmentation , environmental regulations , urban dual labor , rural migrant workers , threshold effect

摘要： 城镇劳动力市场分割决定了环境规制对二元劳动力就业影响存在差异性。基于环境规制对城镇二元劳动力就业影响理论分析，本文首先利用1998—2014年30省份面板数据实证分析了环境规制对城镇二元劳动力就业影响的差异性，进一步采用面板门限模型，考察了环境规制对城镇农民工就业影响的劳动力市场分割门槛效应。研究发现：（1）环境规制对城镇农民工就业负面冲击大于对城镇本地劳动力就业冲击；（2）环境规制对农民工城镇就业存在显著的劳动力市场分割门槛效应，当劳动力市场分割程度高于2002时，环境规制对农民工城镇就业抑制效应为-0116；当劳动力市场分割介于1199到2002之间时，抑制效应较大程度下降，为-0042；而当劳动力市场分割程度小于1199时，抑制效应转变为正向促进效应，为0106。未来应继续深化户籍制度改革，打破劳动力市场分割，加强技能培训，提高人力资本积累，降低环境规制对农民工城镇就业抑制效应，进一步提高城镇化水平，有效发挥城镇化经济增长效应。

关键词: 劳动力市场分割 , 环境规制 , 二元劳动力 , 农民工 , 门槛效应