Table of Content

16 December 2016, Volume 36 Issue 12

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CONSTRUCTION OF CHINAS NEW ECONOMIC MOMENTUM OF ECONOMIC GROWTH UNDER THE SLOWDOWN OF GLOBAL TECHNOLOGICAL PROGRESS

2016, 36(12):  5-20. 

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The demographic dividend is disappearing, the marginal return of capital is declining and the technical catchup space brought about by the opening to the outside world is narrowing, which lead to a continued decline in Chinas potential output growth rate China needs to shift from imitation to independent innovation stage to upgrade the potential growth rate The important force to promote the conversion of new and old economic momentum is a new round of structural reforms, especially the supply side structural reforms This reform needs to adjust the relationship between the market and the government again, and transforms the technical imitationdriven model to the innovationbased economic governance model.


DOES THE MARGIN TRADING AND SHORT SELLING INCREASE THE CHINESE STOCK MARKET VOLATILITY

ZHANG Hong-wei,YANG Kun,XIANG Yu-bing

2016, 36(12):  21-31. 

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The aims of designing margin trading and short selling are to increase the liquidity of stock market and to satisfy the demands to hedge market risk, thereby improving the huge fluctuation caused by imbalance of supply and demand The implementation of margin trading and short selling is to achieve the goal of capital markets longterm stability In practice, margin trading and short selling make the funds flow between money market and capital market fluently, and lever huge funds flow into stock market Margin trading develops greatly while short selling develops slowly Their nature makes themselves exaggerate the shocks to the price volatility by attracting more speculator activities The result of cointegration regression shows that the margin trading and short selling have significant positive influence on Shanghai Stock Index The TGARCH event approach further show margin trading and short selling effectively reduce the volatility at the early stage As they developed, they significantly increase the market volatility and have failed to meet the expectation of the designers.


THE COMPOSITION OF URBAN RESIDENTS INCOME AND CONSUMPTION INEQUALITY AND THEIR RELATIONS IN CHINA

CHEN Zhi-gang,LU Bing-yang

2016, 36(12):  32-45. 

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In this study, we examine the composition of income and consumption inequality and their relations in Chinas urban population during the period 2002—2009 by using the Urban Household Survey data We find that urban residents income inequality is mainly caused by wage income; the marginal contribution of wage income and property income to total income inequality is positive, and it is negative for transfer income and operating income; pension and social relief are the most important factors for reducing the total income inequality; food expenses, transportation and communication expenses are the main parts of urban residents consumption inequality, and for the former, the marginal contribution to the total consumption inequality is negative, while for the latter it is positive; urban residents consumption inequality is caused mainly by income inequality.


CAN THE IMPLEMENTATION OF THE “UNIVERSAL TWOCHILD” POLICY EFFECTIVELY SOLVE THE PAYMENT CRISIS OF ENDOWMENT FUND FOR URBAN EMPLOYEE——Based on Analyzing Different Implementation Effect of Population Policy

TANG Yun-shu,WU Shuang-shuang

2016, 36(12):  56-57. 

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On the basis of analyzing short and long influence on the implementation of “universal twochild” policy towards urban birth population, this paper has calculated payment balance change of city labor forces endowment insurance in different implementation effect of “universal twochild” policy Empirical research discovers as follows First, the implementation of “universal twochild” policy will postpone emerging time of total population peak of cities and towns Meanwhile, it will increase scale of population peak Second, in the situation that policy effect is pessimistic and eclectic, the implementation of “universal twochild” policy just postpone emerging time of inflection point of insured worker population reduction It cant change the overall trend of insured worker population reduction In optimistic situation, we can maintain basic stabilization of insured worker population Third, the implementation of ‘universal twochild policy is good for balance of payments of endowment insurance of the urban staffs The effects of the policy will appear since 2037 The proportions of compensating the annuity gap under three policy effects are 36%, 52% and 68% respectively The effects will begin to decrease year by year since 2040 By 2050 the proportions of compensating the annuity gap will decrease to 11%, 27% and 50% respectively, which cannot change the tendency that the annuity gap keeps expanding.

FINANCIAL CENTRALIZATION VERSUS DECENTRALIZATION WITH IMPERFECTION INFORMATION: WHICH IS BETTER#br#

LIU Lei1,LIU Xi-liang1,WANG Jinyang2

2016, 36(12):  58-69. 

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The responsibility of local government about financial regulation and bailout has been increasingly emphasized, but the authorities and responsibilities between central and local government still remains ambiguous This paper analyzes how to design the optimal financial decentralization for central government in theory, based on information, moral risk and financial externality Under financial centralized situation, a country may be in a state of high degree of financial repression, because of the hidden intervention of local government Under financial decentralization, the more important local stateinformation is for a financial policy making and the larger screening cost is, the greater decentralization value is and the more the central government is tolerant of local governments But introducing financial externality, especially crossregional contagious characteristics of financial risks, the central government with strong administrative ability and rich macro financial instruments has a comparative advantage in coordinating regional financial spillover effects and controlling systemic financial risk, compared to the local government So, we believe that financial regime is not an absolute centralizationordecentralization question, but a financial modest decentralization, for seeking the optimal structure of financial decentralization and then guarding against regional and systemic financial risk.

 

FINANCIAL CRISIS, MONETARY POLICY AND CREDIT SUPPLY——A Loanlevel Analysis

JIN Xue-jun,XU Kai-xiang

2016, 36(12):  70-82. 

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The different characteristics of banks have influence of heterogeneity on the bank lending channel of financial crisis and monetary transmission This paper examines whether a bank lending channel exists in monetary policy transmission in China, employing loanlevel data from 2001 through 2015 Further study on whether there are crosssectional differences in response to financial crisis among the banks of different characteristics The results of our study indicate that the bank lending of monetary policy exists in China and the change in monetary policies generate heterogeneous bank credit supply If banks own larger scale, higher level of liquidity and capital adequacy ratio, the credit supply will not be sensitive to the monetary policy The financial crisis reduces the efficiency of bank lending channel in monetary policy transmission significantly, while banks of higher capital adequacy ratios and stateowned banks can alleviate this negative effect Moreover, the easy monetary policy is more efficient to control stateowned banks credit supply during the financial crisis.

THE MECHANISM OF SLOTTING ALLOWANCE WITH BARGAINING MODEL AND MANUFACTURES EFFORT

YING Shan-shan,ZHU Bei,GAO Jie

2016, 36(12):  83-92. 

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The formation mechanism of slotting allowance and the regulation have been a dilemma for a long time This paper incorporates the manufactures investment and externality between manufactures into the Nash bargaining model over slotting fees, to see their influence on slotting allowance as well as the welfare effect of slotting allowance This paper shows that slotting allowance is not only affected by the relative bargaining power between manufactures and retailers, but also by manufactures effort costs and externality Though manufactures have no bargaining power, the retailer may also pay the franchise fee to the manufacture to encourage its effort Moreover, in some condition slotting allowance will harm consumer welfare Therefore, it is reasonable to treat cases of slotting allowance as behaviors of abusing market power and apply ruleofreason into its judgment.

SECURITY ANALYST COVERAGE AND THE COST STICKINESS OF CHINESE LISTED FIRMS

2016, 36(12):  93-107. 

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Based on a data of Chinese listed companies during 2002—2014, this paper empirically tests the effect of security analysts coverage on cost stickiness The empirical results show as follows First, the more is analysts coverage, the lower is cost stickiness This relation is influenced by internal equity structure and external marketization level Second, the relation is stronger when degree of marketization is lower, firms is stateowned, largest shareholders shareholding is lower Third, star and group analysts can better inhibit cost stickiness than nonstar and individual analysts This paper is not only helpful in uncovering the factors which affect cost stickiness in China, but also useful in understanding the government mechanism of analyst, having enlightenment significance to improve the efficiency of resource allocation.