Table of Content

16 February 2012, Volume 31 Issue 2

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2011—2012 CHINAS MONETARY POLICY REVIEW AND OUTLOOK

JIAO Jin-Pu, MA Zhi-Yang

2012, 32(2):  5-14. 

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This paper reviewed the main measures of Chinas monetary policy in 2011 Based on analyzing financial performance in 2011 and the economic circumstance in 2012, this paper provided some suggestions for Chinas monetary policy in 2012 This paper argued that, prudent monetary policy implemented by the PBC in 2011 was taking effect, monetary and credit condition was returning its normal level and the rising inflation is effectively curbed The downward pressure on economic growth and upward pressure on inflation would coexist in 2012 The PBC should maintain the stance of prudent monetary policy and implement monetary policy better targeted, more flexible and more prospective Furthermore, the central bank should preset and fine tune the monetary policy timely and moderately according to the changing economic situation, and keep a reasonable moderate growth of money supply, aggregate credit and total social financing to better serve the real economy

CHINA ASHARE OUTLOOK 2012

LIU Han-Xing

2012, 32(2):  15-19. 

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This paper investigated the main factors which would drive China Ashare market in 2012 It briefly reviewed Ashare market performance in 2011, and deeply analyzed the main factors which would drive China Ashare market in 2012 The results showed that Ashare market would fall by the influence of economic growth to slow and European debt crisis in the first half of the year, and rally with US economic recovery

CHINAS LAND PROTECTION UNDER SYNCHRONIZATION OF INDUSTR
IALIZATION, URBANIZATION AND AGRICULTURAL MODERNIZATION

WANG Shuang-Zheng

2012, 32(2):  20-27. 

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This paper firstly analyzed the current grim situation of Chinas farmland protection, and then explored the main reasons of Chinas farmland nonagricultural trend in recent years On this basis, from the housing security, transportation, water conservancy facilities, independent industrial and mining land and other aspects, it made a comprehensive analysis of the future demand for construction land Finally, according to Chinas current situation, jumping out of the traditional thinking of “agriculture of agriculture”, “land of land”, this paper pertinently put forward the 12th Fiveyear Plan to protect farmland

ENVIRONMENTAL REGULATION AND FDI SPILLOVER EFFECT

ZHANG Zhong-Yuan, ZHAO Guo-Qing

2012, 32(2):  28-36. 

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By using the correlated data of 39 industries during 20002009 in China, this paper examined the horizontal, forward and backward spillover effects of the FDI, the impact of environmental regulation on industrial technological progress and the effect of environmental regulation on the marginal effect of FDI on industrial technological progress The empirical results showed that horizontal spillover from FDI had no promotion effects on industrial technological progress, forward spillover from FDI had uneven promotion effects on industrial technological progress, backward spillover from FDI had significant promotion effects on industrial technological progress and the enhancing of environmental regulation intensity also had significant promotion effects on industrial technological progress Further studies suggested that the enhancements of environmental regulation also facilitated FDI vertical spillovers in the long run


LIQUIDITY CONSTRAINT, GOVERNMENT CONSUMPTION SUBSTITUTION
 AND HOUSEHOLD CONSUMPTION VOLATILITY IN CHINA

TU Jun-Ming

2012, 32(2):  37-46. 

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This paper used two related models to explore the relationship between liquidity constraint, government consumption substitution and household consumption volatility in China This paper found that liquidity constraint and government consumption substitution could effectively increase household consumption volatility with the channels of weakening households ability of intertemporal optimization and substitution effect This paper also found that liquidity constraint decreased households welfare and government consumption substitution could help to increase households welfare

DOES IMPORT OBSTRUCT TECHNOLOGICAL PROGRESS
——Reexamination Based on the Statespace Model

CHEN Hao, ZHAO Chun-Ming

2012, 32(2):  47-53. 

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 This paper remeasured the level and rate of Chinese technological progress by applying growth function and generalized Solow residuals It built a state space model and used Kalman filtering to empirically analyze technical progress and imports rate of technological progress This study showed that: first, although the overall level of Chinas technology was growing, the rate fluctuated greatly, which indicated that the trend of technological progress was not yet stable; second, imports negatively affected technological progress, which was alleviated by reform and openness It could obstruct technological progress to some extent, but the impact of import trade on the rate of technological progress was still significantly positive

A STUDY ABOUT INVESTMENT PERFORMANCE OF
CHINA SOVEREIGN WEALTH FUNDS

LI Feng 1, SONG Yu-Hua 2

2012, 32(2):  54-60. 

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This paper applied the method of event study to study the investments by China sovereign wealth funds and their economic effects and investment performance After building up the datebase of Chinas four SWFs which preceded 28 items of investments to target domestic and foreign listed companies from Dec 2007 to Jun 2010, this paper tested the abnormal return of the investment behaviors by Chinas SWFs by calculating AAR and CAAR At the same time, the longterm investment performances of Chinas SWFs were disclosed by using the methods to measure longterm effect

INSIDER TRADING AND MARKET RETURN: THE EVIDENCE FROM CHINA

HE Qing

2012, 32(2):  61-70. 

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This paper examined the characteristics and market returns of legal insider transaction in China Although CSRC had implemented new policies to regulate insider transactions since Jun 1st 2007, this paper found that corporate insiders could earn abnormal returns from both purchasing and sealing their firm shares The abnormal profits were higher when ownership structure was highly concentrated and the largest shareholder was government related Moreover, the abnormal profits were larger when the quality of corporate governance was poor This paper provided several policy suggestions to further regulate inside trading in China

A STUDY ON RMB EXCHANGE RATE GAME IN THE
POSTFINANCIAL CRISIS

LIU Gang

2012, 32(2):  71-80. 

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In the era of postfinancial crisis, a game of RMB revaluation among major powers, such as US, Germany, Japan, Brazil and China started These countries tried to adapt an exchange rate policy of beggarthyneighbor, forcing China to revalue its currency, to mitigate the shocks of financial crisis and stimulate their domestic economy The different position of each country, however, around the world determined their game strategy With the escalating RMB exchange rate game among major powers, China should learn how to deal with the issue in the viewpoint of politics and country strategic competition, and continued to reform the RMB exchange rate formation mechanism based on the rules of activeness, control ability and progressiveness

U.S.AND CHINAS MANUFACTURING COMPETITIVENESS
COMPARISON UNDER REINDUSTRIALIZATION

ZHAO Yan-Yun, QIN Xu, WANG Jie-Biao

2012, 32(2):  81-88. 

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Based on the method of smile curve to reflect industry value chain, this paper compared US and Chinas manufacturing competitiveness from the aspects of distribution pattern of technologyintensive manufacturing, integration of manufacturing and producer services, to explore the path of Chinese manufacturing industry upgrading, and improve its international competitiveness during the ninth, tenth and eleventh fiveyear periods, under the background of reindustrialization, which proposed by US regarding the extreme expansion of the virtual economy and weakening of the real economy The empirical results showed that China was still in a lower level, while US was stably in a higher level from the technologyintensive manufacturing distribution However, Chinas growth potential was huge and the gap was shrinking every year From the balanced integration of manufacturing and producer services, China was significantly weaker than US, especially in R&D

RESEARCH OF REGIONAL ECONOMIC SPATIAL
STRUCTURE CHANGE IN CHINA

NIAN Meng, SUN Jiu-Wen

2012, 32(2):  89-96. 

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This paper analyzed the change of regional economic strategy and the implementation of new planning since the reform and opening up, which changed Chinas regional spatial structure Further studies explored the economic activities of the regional agglomeration and diffusion trend, and their influence to regional economic growth and development gap movements in China This paper concluded that the implementation of overall regional economic development strategy and new planning had broken the uneven spatial pattern of Chinas regional economic growth since reform and opening up, and that Chinas regional economic development had entered a relatively balanced development period

SEMS ESTIMATION ON THE RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN
INTERNATIONAL OPERATION AND PERFORMANCE

ZHAO Shi-Lei

2012, 32(2):  97-103. 

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This paper mainly discussed the relationship between the degree of international operations of Chinas listed companies and their performances as well as the impact of international operations on their performances Based on the analysis on 410 sample companies listed in Ashare market in Shenzhen and Shanghai, this paper built a structure equation model (SEM) to test the relationship between the international operations of Chinese companies and their performances and estimate the impact of the company international operations on their performance Results of SEM estimation showed that the scale of economy of Chinese listed companies had a positive impact on their shortterm performance, and the global synergy efficiency also had a positive impact on longterm performance

RESEARCH OF THE PRIVATE ECONOMY ON WESTERN CHINA
——Based on Load and Contribution Model Analysis

BAO Guo-Xian, LI Yi

2012, 32(2):  104-112. 

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 Based on Chinas western region where the market economy environment is nonstandard, this paper discussed the development of the private economys load and contribution Employment and the average salary, these two easy measurably index associated with the development of the private economy, portrayed the burden and contribution Based on load and contribution model, this paper compared the data of the area private economic development from 2005 to 2010 Study on the development of the private economy for all regions by comparing the load and contribution from the perspective of fair, this paper analyzed the relationship between the private economy and the stateowned economy from the perspective of effective resource allocation Empirical results showed a close internal link between the private economy and stateowned economy existed