Table of Content

16 March 2012, Volume 32 Issue 3

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MACRO PRUDENTIAL REGULATION: TARGET, INSTRUMENTS
AND INSTITUTIONAL ARRANGEMENT

CHEN Yu-Lu, MA Yong

2012, 31(3):  5-15. 

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From the experience of financial crisis in the past 40 years, financial imbalance became a recurrent phenomenon as the development of financial market The mutual strengthening mechanism between financial and macroeconomic imbalance led to an obvious and longlasting deviation from the normal standard Under the negative effect of the financial procyclicality, financial and macroeconomic stability could not be reached unless macro prudential regulation put into policy framework The macro prudential regulation emphasized that, the risk of the financial system should be assessed from the overall perspective of the interaction between economic behavior, financial market and financial institutions The design of financial system should take this interaction into consideration

EFFICIENCY, EQUITY, SOCIAL STABILITY AND HOUSING PROBLEM——Political Economic Analysis on an Intergenerational Model

HUANG Chun

2012, 31(3):  16-25. 

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Land and housing are public goods of history community of labors Whether the society is able to solve housing problem in accordance with the principle of efficiency and fairness or not determines whether the society can solve the conflicts between the specific interest and the historical interests of labors The essence of the conflicts is that between individual rationality and state rationality The public power to extract and use rent from economic system is the basic way to solve housing problem Different systems have equivalence On the constraints of stable society, the public power to extract and use rent cannot guarantee that the resolution of housing problem meets the principle of efficiency and fairness Therefore, the society needs better political nature, legal constraints and moral conscious for state rationality of labors

INCOME INEQUALITY OF URBAN HOUSEHOLDS——Based on Urban Household Survey Monthly Data of Anhui Province in 2005-2009

XIA Zhu-Bing-1, MA Xiao-2, PU Ming-2

2012, 31(3):  26-35. 

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Based on the monthly urban household survey data of Anhui province from 2005 to 2009 which could be hardly found in current literature, this paper investigated income disparity among urban households The results showed that the Gini ratio based on monthly data was bigger than that based on yearly data Moreover, the dominant issue of urban income inequality in main income sources was wage disparity Furthermore, the increase rate of income of different income groups would raise as the average income increased The income gap between low and top income groups would continuously increase Additionally, the empirical result also indicated that redistribution had little effect to solve the problem of income disparity Urban top income group paid limited individual income tax Meanwhile, urban minimum living standard scheme had not yet realized its goal of “fully admittance of the qualified and no admittance of the unqualified”

INFLATION AND “MIDDLE INCOME TRAP”: PERSPECTIVE
OF FAMILY WELFARE LOSS

NI Guo-Hua, ZHENG Feng-Tian

2012, 31(3):  36-47. 

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Based on classical economic growth theories, combined with the characteristics of middleincome countries, the following theoretical assumptions were proposed in this paper: in middleincome countries, inflation caused by the loss of family benefits would seriously affect the macroeconomic development and thus promoted the countries falling into “middle income trap” This paper used FGLS, difference GMM, and system GMM methods to analyze the panel data of four groups of typical “middle income trap” suffered countries The results showed that: after controlling the factors such as infrastructure, debt level, technological innovation and savings rates, inflation had a significant negative impact on per capita GDP growth at all four groups of countries Even for the East Asian group whose average annual inflation rate was only 514 %, the impact of inflation on per capita GDP growth also reached 123～221 percentage points, and the gravity of impact reached 27%～48% Therefore, Chinese economy would develop sustainably and healthily by strengthening the control of inflation 

COST SHOCKS, INFLATION TOLERANCE AND MACROECONOMIC POLICY

WU Ge, LI Bin

2012, 31(3):  48-52. 

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This round of inflation in China since 2010 had a very significant characteristic that cost shocks were main drivers, including the hike of commodities and labor cost Under the current situation, the issues of inflation tolerance and related macroeconomic policy had attracted widespread attention This paper discussed the different effects of commodities shocks and labor cost shocks on the supply side based on DornbuschFischer framework, and studied the inflation tolerance and reaction to macroeconomic policies in China

TAX POLICIES AND RESIDENTS CONSUMPTION DEMAND——A New Thought Based on Structure Effects

CHU De-Yin-1, YAN Wei-2

2012, 31(3):  53-63. 

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This paper applied the principle of tax economic effect to systematically explain the mechanism of commodity tax, income tax and property tax on the residents consumption demand By examining overall situation of tax system structure and the negative impact about the residents consumption demand, this paper established a dynamic panel data model and used GMM to estimate the structure effects of tax policies on the residents consumption demand The empirical results showed that, the property tax crowded into the residents consumption, and the commodity tax and income tax crowded out the residents consumption Imposing interest tax could significantly reduce the depression effect of individual income tax on the residents consumption According to theoretical analysis and empirical results, this paper argued that in order to improve the pertinence and incentive effects of tax policies on the residents consumption demand, the government should take advantage of structure effects of tax policies, and actively promote and implement the new structural reform of tax system to build tax structure in coordination with expanding the residents' consumption demand

RESEARCH ON JOBSEEKING DESIRE OF LONGTERM UNEMPLOYMENT——Based on Public Employment Service

WU Jiang, WANG Xin

2012, 31(3):  64-69. 

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Based on the public employment service (PES), this paper built a research project on job-seeking desire of long-term unemployment persons and sought for some effective mechanisms to encourage and promote their job-seeking desire To focus on the current situation of public employment service and the demand of employment, this paper also provided some feasible mechanisms and suggestions

A STUDY ON COUNTERCYCLICAL BEHAVIOR OF BANK
CAPITAL BUFFERS——Evidence from Listed Banks in China

KE Kong-Lin-1, FENG Zong-Xian-2, CHEN Wei-Ping-2

2012, 31(3):  70-79. 

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Lots of attention had been paid to the cyclical behavior of capital buffers in the aftermath of the global financial crisis By using a dynamic panel data model, this paper analyzed how business cycle and the determinants affect capital buffers The results showed that capital buffers of Chinese listed banks had countercyclical behavior from 2002 to 2009 However, the features showed no significant differences between state-owned and non-state-owned banks, which was mainly due to significant relationship between bank capital, risk-weighted assets and business cycle The channels of capital supplement such as governmental capital injection and listing financing were important external paths to increase capital buffers in the short term How to construct the marketoriented mechanism of longterm effective capital replenishment and determine the moderate range of capital buffers became a key issue of Chinese regulatory authorities and commercial banks in the postfinancial crisis era

RMB EXCHANGE RATE, DOMESTIC AGGREGATE DEMAND
AND INFLATION——Based on the Exchange Rate Transmission Theory

ZHU Jian-Ping, LIU Lu

2012, 31(3):  80-89. 

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Inflation has been economic problem which Chinese government must face directly and deal with cautiously Based on the exchange rate transmission theory, this paper analyzed the longterm equilibrium and shortterm adjustment relationships among RMB exchange rate, domestic aggregate demand, world price and domestic inflation from 1980 to 2010 by using the autoregressive distributed lag model (ARDL) The appreciation of RMB did not curb the domestic inflation in long run as international economics theory described On the contrary, it significantly raised the domestic price level Chinas inflation had the characteristic of demand pull, which was insignificantly affected by world inflation In short term, the dynamic adjustment of domestic inflation had a lag characteristic and the faster speed of adjustment from shortterm changes to longterm equilibrium

THE APPROACH TO CHINA AGRICULTURAL MODERNIZATION:
BASED ON PEASANT ECONOMY

JIANG Nan-Ping, LI Bo

2012, 31(3):  90-99. 

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With the gradually completion of demographic transition and the combination of industrialization and urbanization process, it was possible to ease the tension of the relationship between human and land which had restricted modern agricultural development in China, and to control the longterm decline of cultivated land (sowing) area Based on the forecast of 2006-2030 Chinas demographic transition, rapid industrialization and urbanization, this paper analyzed the change tendency of the cultivated and sawing land areas and forecasted the agricultural labor force population This paper concluded that sowing area per capita would be more than 11 acres in 2020, and it would rise further to 145 acres by 2030 Therefore, agricultural labor force would be in full employment status and reached a relatively high agricultural income, which gradually formed a modern peasant economy mode in China

EVALUATION OF AGRICULTURAL DEVELOPMENT IN CHINAL

LIU Yan-Ni, REN Bao-Ping, GAO Peng

2012, 31(3):  100-107. 

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This paper applied nonparametric Malmquist index method to study the total factor productivity growth of Chinas agricultural in 1978-2009 period and its timing characteristics and composition of change in performance The empirical results showed that the average annual growth rate of 2.6%, mainly from the technological progress China'sagricultural growth remained extensive mode of development, mainly in the low rough shape In future, the efficient use of factors of production by technological progress, improving the quality of workers, strengthening ecological and environmental protection would be the efficient way to achieve the transformation of agricultural development in China

A LITERATURE REVIEW ON  RESIDENTS' INCOME GAP

SUN Jing-Shui, DONG Li-Feng

2012, 31(3):  108-112. 

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Since reform and opening up, with China's sustained and rapid economic growth, residents' income level had been increased significantly.At the same time,  residents' income gap was also growing, which had attracted widespread attention This paper systematically reviewed and commented on the definition, criteria, measurement methods, formation mechanism and early warning mechanism of appropriate income gap, and prospected future related research, which had important reference value for follow-up study