Economic Theory and Business Management ›› 2012, Vol. 31 ›› Issue (3): 80-89.
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ZHU Jian-Ping, LIU Lu
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朱建平, 刘璐
作者简介:
基金资助:
国家社会科学基金重点项目“我国应对国际金融风险的对策研究”(08AJY029);江苏省哲学社会科学重点研究基地“金融风险管理研究中心”重大项目“区域金融稳定与金融风险管理研究”(2010JDXM021)
Abstract: Inflation has been economic problem which Chinese government must face directly and deal with cautiously Based on the exchange rate transmission theory, this paper analyzed the longterm equilibrium and shortterm adjustment relationships among RMB exchange rate, domestic aggregate demand, world price and domestic inflation from 1980 to 2010 by using the autoregressive distributed lag model (ARDL) The appreciation of RMB did not curb the domestic inflation in long run as international economics theory described On the contrary, it significantly raised the domestic price level Chinas inflation had the characteristic of demand pull, which was insignificantly affected by world inflation In short term, the dynamic adjustment of domestic inflation had a lag characteristic and the faster speed of adjustment from shortterm changes to longterm equilibrium
Key words: exchange rate transmission , domestic aggregate demand , inflation , auto-regressive distributed lag model , bound test
摘要: 通货膨胀一直是中国政府直接面对而又必须谨慎处理的经济问题。本文以汇率传递理论为视角,运用自回归分布滞后模型(ARDL)考察了1980—2010年人民币汇率、国内总需求、世界商品价格与通货膨胀之间的长期均衡和短期调整关系。长期看来,人民币升值并未像国际经济学理论描述的那样可以抑制通货膨胀,相反却显著地抬高了国内价格水平;中国通货膨胀的成因具有需求拉上的特点,且不存在明显的世界通货膨胀的输入途径。短期看来,中国通货膨胀的动态调整具有明显的滞后特征,且由短期变动向长期均衡调整的速度较快。
关键词: 汇率传递 , 国内总需求 , 通货膨胀 , 自回归分布滞后模型 , 边限检验
ZHU Jian-Ping, LIU Lu. RMB EXCHANGE RATE, DOMESTIC AGGREGATE DEMAND AND INFLATION——Based on the Exchange Rate Transmission Theory[J]. Economic Theory and Business Management, 2012, 31(3): 80-89.
朱建平, 刘璐. 人民币汇率、国内总需求与通货膨胀——基于汇率传递理论的实证研究[J]. 经济理论与经济管理, 2012, 31(3): 80-89.
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URL: http://jjll.ruc.edu.cn/EN/
http://jjll.ruc.edu.cn/EN/Y2012/V31/I3/80