Table of Content

16 January 2012, Volume 31 Issue 01

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ON SECURITY OF CHINESE CIRCULATION INDUSTRY

JI Bao-Cheng, LI Chen-Hua

2012, 32(01):  5-9. 

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China has been the member of WTO for about 10 years, at the same time foreign commercial firms speeded up to China markets, seized the development space of Chinas national commercial industry and potentially threatened the security of Chinas circulation industry However this menace has been ignored by the traditional and currently popular views This paper proposed several new points about the security of Chinese circulation industry, in order to provide guidance for the empirical analysis and political suggestion in future


REAL ESTATE TAX, MARKET STRUCTURE AND HOUSING PRICE

KUANG Wei-Da

2012, 32(01):  10-19. 

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The paper developed a partial equilibrium model of housing flow market and investigated the relationship of real estate tax and housing price in the scenarios of perfect monopoly and perfect competition The model documented that the imposition and elevation of real estate tax would make housing price decline under different market structure The greater the degree of monopoly was, the housing price would be higher, and the impact of real estate tax on housing price would become greater Using the data of 33 large and mediansize cities in China from 1996 through 2008, the paper found that the influence of market structure upon housing price was greater than that of real estate tax One percent increase of real estate tax would lead to 003% decline of housing price, but one percent increase of Lerner index would generate 016% augment of housing price Accordingly, the property tax could not curb the inflated housing price effectively in China More importantly, the policymakers were supposed to pay great attention on market structure to mitigate the monopoly in the housing markets

AN ANALYSIS ON THE RURAL FAMILYMIGRANT WORKERS
URBAN INTEGRATION
——Based on the Interview Data of 500 Rural Familymigrant Workers in Beijing

JI Shao

2012, 32(01):  20-27. 

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This article provided an empirical analysis on the situation and the degree of the rural migrant workers urban integration in Beijing, based on the data from a followup survey of 500 rural migrant workers of 80s generation in Beijing The survey started from 2004 and carried out once every two years By utilizing factor analysis on the survey data from November 2010 to March 2011, this paper analyzed the degree of rural migrant workers urban integration, and concluded that the institutional constraints, the flow style of employment and resources endowments were the main factors to affect the degree of the rural migrant workers urban integration

WHY IS THE THOUGHT OF DIVISION OF LABOR NEGLECTED
——A History Study of Marshalls Economic Thought

ZHANG Ri-Bo

2012, 32(01):  28-35. 

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The thought of division of labor was an important component in classical economics, but it was neglected after Marshall in Neoclassic economics for a long time What exactly was the reason? This paper reviewed Marshalls thought stream and discovered that Marshalls division of labor was closely related to his method of economic biology The coordination of economic biology and economical mechanics resulted in a controversy about “increasing returns and the representative firm” in the 1920s This argument enabled the mainstream economic to experience an approach of “away from the economical biology and close to economical mechanics”, which departed from Marshalls thought It was the reason why the thought of division of labor was neglected

ECOLOGICAL SECURITY AND GOVERNANCE:
THEORETICAL PERSPECTIVE OF COMPLEX SYSTEMS
EMBEDDED IN ECONOMICS

LI Ping, WANG Wei

2012, 32(01):  36-43. 

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Based on the complex system theory, this paper criticized the traditional economic and social development theory represented by neoclassical economic theory from methodology, assumption and goals The ecological defect was the reason that ecological security has been ignored for long time This paper pointed out the inefficiency of a onedimensional and static system and built a theoretical framework for dynamic ecological management, which was a multidimensional, dynamic and relative complete framework for ecological management system, to increase the efficiency of ecological governance

AN EMPIRICAL STUDY ON CREDIT EFFECT ON CHINAS
ECONOMIC GROWTH

2012, 32(01):  44-58. 

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In this paper the economic growth cycle and credit cycle in China were calculated by the correlation analysis of peak and trough Based on the cycles, this paper applied linear regressions and Markov switching models to study the relations between the economic growth, credit cycle and inflation in China, and analyzed the contribution of credit loan to the economic growth from consumption channel and investment channel respectively The results showed that the credit cycle was procyclical and had asymmetric effects on the economic growth, iefinancial accelerator effect Furthermore, the credit loan was more efficient to prompt economic growth during mild inflation or domestic currency appreciation but had crowdout effect on consumption

STUDY ON THE FORMATION MECHANISM AND POLICY
DIRECTION OF REDISCOUNT RATE IN CHINA

ZHONG Guo-Ren-Min-Yin-Xing-Wu-Han-Fen-Xing-Huo-Bi-Xin-Dai-Chu-1, ZHONG Guo-Ren-Min-Yin-Xing-Yi-Chang-Shi-Zhong-Xin-Zhi-Xing-2

2012, 32(01):  59-66. 

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Taking the formation mechanism of rediscount rate as research object, this paper analyzed the present status and problems of rediscount rate and applied an empirical study on the formation mechanism of rediscount rate from perspectives of domestic and foreign countriesFinally, this paper provided some suggestions for improving the formation mechanism of rediscount rate and strengthening policy guidance effect of rediscount


RESEARCH ON VIRTUAL CURRENCY REAL MONEY TRADE

WU Hong, SUN Qi-Ming

2012, 32(01):  67-72. 

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RMT was a new economic phenomenon emerged in network era It could be regarded as a bridge connecting real economy and the virtual one Furthermore, the border of virtual world and reality seemed not that clear after RMT was involved Inflation, value creation and wealth transformation could affect real world economy with the help of RMT Furthermore the existence of virtual currency was showing more and more influence on real financial system After years of development, the development of virtual products and service indicated a new industrial area and related business chain This paper reviewed newly research on RMT in focus on its history, price effect, social welfare and business model, and gave some direction for further research

THE INFLUENCE OF INDIRECT TAX ON THE UNBALANCE
BETWEEN SUPPLY AND DEMAND

吕Bing-Yang 1 , XIE Yao-Zhi 2

2012, 32(01):  73-81. 

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Since the late 1990s, Chinas macroeconomic performance has emerged two significant phenomena: the rapid growth of indirect tax and the unbalance between supply and demand This article studied the inner relation between two economic phenomena by building a general equilibrium model and applying empirical analysis The productive value added tax restrained the investment and consumption together, and its influence on the unbalance between supply and demand was insignificant The business taxs growth intensely strengthened the macroeconomic unbalance, because the business tax was easily shift to consumers and existed double tax levyAll taxes on the base of consumption were indirect tax, so the increase of average tax rate of consumption base tax would strengthen the macroeconomic unbalance

MEASUREMENT, EVALUATION AND RELEASE OF CHINAS
LOCAL GOVERNMENT DEBT RISK

LIU Rong 1, HUANG Hong 2

2012, 32(01):  82-88. 

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This paper measured and evaluated Chinas local government debt risk Although the balance of local government debt was in the controllable range, the new debt ratio had exceeded warning lines, which was a potential local government debt risk This article analyzed the reasons of local government debt risk from the angle of decentralization and moral hazard Finally, by analyzing the logical system of local government debt risk, it provided policy recommendations for solving local government debt risk to form system basement, prior audit control, dynamic monitoring and hindsight improvement

STUDY ON THE CONSISTENCY OF THE RURAL PUBLIC
GOODS CONSTRUCTION ——Based on Empirical Study on Survey Data of “Ten Counties and A Hundred Villages”

WEI Long-Bao, WU Jun-Qian, SHI Sheng

2012, 32(01):  89-96. 

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This paper explored the consistency of rural public goods construction by using survey data of“Ten Counties and A Hundred Villages”in ChinaThe empirical analysis illustrated that rural households most necessary public goods were roads, irrigation facilities and social security The comparison between the demand of rural governments and households indicated that the consistency of rural public goods was at a low levelBased on results of multilogit analysis and linear regression analysis, significant factors for consistency included: gender, Party status, whether working as a farmer, land per capita, whether a model of new countryside construction, whether there was an election for the village head and total public expenditure Lastly, this paper provided some implications on related policies

THE STRATEGIC EMERGING INDUSTRIES AND AMERICAN
ECONOMIC TAKEOFF
——Historical Experience and Enlightenment of American Iron and Steel Industry

JIA Gen-Liang, YANG Wei

2012, 32(01):  97-110. 

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In the second half of the 19th century, the United States focused on the development of iron and steel industry which was one of the strategic emerging industries during this period, based on largescale domestic demand for industrial products with the help of a series of trade protection and industrial promotion policies including high tariffs, restrictions on FDI, enhancement of personnel training, and rational exploitation of natural resources As a pursuer of Britain at the beginning, American seized the opportunity of the third wave of technological revolution and realized the industrialization and economic development depending on strategic policies of supporting national industries, unique national innovation system, continuous progress of technologies, intensive use of highquality capital equipment, productivity advantages of highwage workers and effective exploitation of natural resources This successful experience provided China with important guidance for how to develop contemporary strategic emerging industries based on domestic demand and to establish the development model of endogenous growth and driven by innovation