Abstract: Conditional on maintaining the stability of the real estate market, property tax becoming main local revenue source is the major policy objective of Chinas property tax reform. However, in the context of high housing priceincome ratio, these two conflict with each other. Based on the simulation of microlevel family data and the property tax element design, this paper explores the path and impact of the gradual reform of China's property tax. The conclusion indicates that: due to the limitation of residents' ability to pay under high housing priceincome ratio, property tax reform should start with low tax rates and high exemptions; then, as housing priceincome ratio converges, the tax rate can gradually increase and the exemptions could gradually decrease. In the short term, the property tax reform should give priority to realizing the goal of a stable and soft landing of the real estate market, and satisfy the constraints of residents' ability and willingness to pay; in the medium and long term, the property tax would gradually become the main tax revenue source for local governments, which will also improve the local tax system and local governance.

Key words:  , property tax, gradual reform, tax element, housing priceincome ratio

摘要： 在保持房地产市场平稳的前提下，使房地产税成为地方重要税种是中国房地产税改革的重要政策目标，但在高房价收入比背景下，这二者相互冲突。本文基于房地产税制要素设计和微观家庭数据测算，探讨中国房地产税的渐进改革路径及其影响，认为鉴于居民纳税能力受高房价收入比限制，房地产税可从低税率、高减免起步；伴随房价收入比收敛，逐步提高税率、降低减免。起步阶段，税制改革应重视居民纳税能力和纳税意愿，优先实现房地产市场平稳软着陆；在中长期，房地产税可逐步成为地方政府主体税种，起到完善税制和地方税体系、提升地方治理能力的作用。

关键词: 房地产税, 渐进改革, 税制要素, 房价收入比