Table of Content

16 December 2021, Volume 41 Issue 12

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ACCURATELY GRASP THE THEORETICAL BASIS,PRACTICAL BASIS AND PLANNING PROGRAMOF COMMON PROSPERITY IN THE THREE TRANSCENDENCES

LIU YuanchunLIU Xiaoguang

2021, 41(12):  4-10. 

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The Sixth Plenary Session of the 19th Central Committee of the Communist Party of China considered and adopted the Resolution of the Central Committee of the Communist Party of China on the Major Achievements and Historical Experience of the Party over the Past Century, and defined the main tasks that the party will face in the New Era. To solidly promote common prosperity in the New Era, we need to accurately grasp the theoretical basis, practical basis and planning program of common prosperity in the three transcendences. First, we must go beyond simple social movements and realize that common prosperity has a solid foundation of economic, social and political theories from the economic, social and political perspectives. Gradually promoting common prosperity is an inevitable requirement for Chinas smooth economic cycle, harmonious social order and solid political foundation. Second, we must go beyond simple theoretical and logical deduction and comprehensively grasp the current situation from the perspective of historical practice that promoting common prosperity is the inevitable choice for socialism with Chinese characteristics to achieve the goal of a welloff society in an allround way and take advantage of the trend to realize modernization in an allround way, which has a solid historical and practical foundation. Third, we must go beyond the general ideological debate, build a scientific implementation plan and feasible path in the criticism of theory, constantly deepen the understanding of common prosperity in practice, solidly promote the construction of common prosperity demonstration area in highquality development, and build a basic institutional arrangement for the coordination and matching of the three major distributions.



DIGITAL FINANCIAL CAPABILITY AND RELATIVE POVERTY#br#

LUO Yu, ZENG Lianyun

2021, 41(12):  11-29. 

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This paper defines “digital financial capability” and tests its impact on reducing relative poverty as well as corresponding function channels. Utilizing the China Household Finance Survey data, the empirical results show that, both digital capability and financial capability significantly reduce the probability of relative poverty under the premise of dealing with endogeneity. Regarding interaction effect, the conditional marginal effects of digital capability and financial capability show greater poverty reduction probability at capability levels with more relatively poor observations, which would help narrow the gap between the rich and the poor. The results show that digital financial capability also significantly reduces the probability of relative poverty, and it is worthy of special attention to the different proportions contributed by four function channels including increasing income, promoting wealth accumulation, easing liquidity constraints and influencing shopping channels. Policies committed to rural revitalization and ameliorating the uneven development should pay attention to improving different levels of digital financial capability of the relatively poor.

CAN DIGITAL FINANCE PLAY A “CATFISH EFFECT” IN RURAL FINANCIAL MARKET——Evidence from Rural Credit Institutions in China

CUI Hengyu, WANG Xue, MA Jiujie

2021, 41(12):  30-41. 

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From the perspective of rural credit institutions lending to support agriculture, this paper explores how digital finance intensifies market competition, which in turn produces a “catfish effect” in the rural financial market. Based on the Market Power Hypothesis, this paper theoretically analyzes the influence of digital finance development on rural financial institutions' agricultural and rural loans. In the empirical part, this paper combines the Digital Inclusive Financial Index of Peking University with the countylevel loan data of rural credit cooperatives and rural commercial banks. The conclusions are as follows. Firstly, the development of digital finance can encourage local rural credit institutions to improve the scale and growth rate of agricultural loans and farmers' loans, indicating that digital finance has led to a “catfish effect” in the rural financial market. Secondly, the positive impact of the development of digital finance on rural credit institutions' support for agriculture is mainly based on the competitive incentive mechanism. At this stage, it is difficult for digital finance to serve as a technical demonstration for rural credit institutions. Thirdly, the development of digital finance can also help to reduce loan interest rates of rural credit institutions. Therefore, more agriculturerelated entities can enjoy cheaper credit service, which promotes the realization of rural inclusive finance.


GOVERNMENT BIG DATA EMPOWERS URBAN INNOVATION:THEORETICAL MECHANISM AND EMPIRICAL EVIDENCE

XU Xia, WU Fuxiang, WANG Bing

2021, 41(12):  42-56. 

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China's urban innovation is facing the obvious problems of unbalanced development and poor coordination. As a treasure house of public information resources, government big data is not only a key factor to empower urban innovation, but also a key factor to realize collaborative innovation. From the perspective of government information dissemination, this paper identifies the key factors that affect the effect of government information dissemination through the Netlogo simulation experiment, and integrates the factors into the accumulation function of enterprises public information capital, so as to expand the endogenous growth model of enterprise horizontal innovation and explore the micro mechanism of government big data empowering urban innovation. Moreover, this paper utilizes the differenceindifference method to examine effect of “the national pilot policy of information benefiting the people”, a program implemented in 2014, by employing 2010—2016 China's urban panel data. The theoretical research shows that: by encouraging the government to disseminate information and optimizing the information dissemination environment, the effect of government information dissemination can be effectively improved, so as to enrich the accumulation of public information capital of enterprises and reduce the time lag of information dissemination, accelerate enterprise innovation, thus promote urban innovation. The empirical research shows that the average promotion effect of this pilot policy on the innovation index of pilot cities is about 29%. Therefore, it is feasible to popularize and deepen this pilot project in an orderly way and take various measures to promote the optimization of the national innovation environment and institutional supply.

REGIONAL DIFFERENCES AND DISTRIBUTION DYNAMIC EVOLUTION OF THE TRANSFORMATION OF CHINA'S ECONOMIC GROWTH KINETIC ENERGY

ZHANG Hongfeng, LI Xiaoting, WANG Ting

2021, 41(12):  57-68. 

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This paper constructs an evaluation index system of economic growth kinetic energy index, calculates the economic growth kinetic energy index of 30 provinces in China from 2009 to 2018, and empirically calculates the regional gap of economic growth kinetic energy and the dynamic evolution trend of its distribution. The results are as follows: (1)The economic growth momentum levels of provinces show a fluctuating and rising development trend, and the regional differences are obvious between the east and the west. (2)The overall regional gap of China's economic growth kinetic energy shows a narrowing trend. From the interregional perspective, the gap in the eastern region is the largest and the gap in the central region is the smallest. From the intraregional perspective, the gap between the eastern and western regions is the largest, and the gap between the central and western regions is the smallest. From the perspective of disparity contribution rate, the interregional disparity is the main source of regional disparity in the transformation of economic growth kinetic energy, while the contribution rate of intraregional disparity and supervariable density is small. (3)The regional disparity of economic growth kinetic energy conversion in different regions of China fluctuates, but it shows a downward trend as a whole. There is a bipolar or multipolar trend in all three regions, especially in the central region.


DOES TRADE POLICY UNCERTAINTY AFFECT THEPROBABILITY OF CHINESE ENTERPRISES' OFDI#br#

LI Zhen, LIU Yongqing

2021, 41(12):  69-78. 

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Based on the microlevel enterprise data, this paper empirically examines the impact of trade policy uncertainty on the probability of Chinese enterprises OFDI. The conclusion shows that: the reduction of trade policy uncertainty can effectively promote the OFDI of enterprises through learning effect. Further analysis indicates that the choices of OFDI of enterprises with different ownership types, different factor intensities and different productivities are significantly heterogeneous when they are impacted by trade policy uncertainty. The findings are valid after considering the endogenous problems and replacing the measurement of trade policy uncertainty.


房地产税渐进改革路径*——基于税制要素设计的实证研究

ZHANG Ping, YAO Zhiyong, FENG Yinan

2021, 41(12):  79-92. 

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Conditional on maintaining the stability of the real estate market, property tax becoming main local revenue source is the major policy objective of Chinas property tax reform. However, in the context of high housing priceincome ratio, these two conflict with each other. Based on the simulation of microlevel family data and the property tax element design, this paper explores the path and impact of the gradual reform of China's property tax. The conclusion indicates that: due to the limitation of residents' ability to pay under high housing priceincome ratio, property tax reform should start with low tax rates and high exemptions; then, as housing priceincome ratio converges, the tax rate can gradually increase and the exemptions could gradually decrease. In the short term, the property tax reform should give priority to realizing the goal of a stable and soft landing of the real estate market, and satisfy the constraints of residents' ability and willingness to pay; in the medium and long term, the property tax would gradually become the main tax revenue source for local governments, which will also improve the local tax system and local governance.


ESTIMATION OF CHINA'S RURAL SURPLUS LABOR: 2010—2018

WANG Qingfang, GUO Jinxing

2021, 41(12):  93-110. 

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Based on the accurate definition of the statistical caliber of rural employed persons, this paper uses the 2015 Special Survey Data of Outflow Monitoring released by the National Health and Family Planning Commission of China to construct a multiclass prediction model based on the selection of rural labor employment types. Then using the supervised machine methods of AdaBoost algorithm, this paper estimates the absolute surplus labor force and relative surplus labor force in rural areas in 2010—2018. The results show that the absolute surplus labor force in rural areas in 2018 is 3692 million, 806% of which is the explicit surplus labor in the form of open unemployment; the relative surplus labor force in 2018 is 5369 million, and only 1051 million of them are the outside transferable surplus labor force. This paper judges that China has stridden across the first Lewis turning point, and will continue to face the dual dilemma of labor shortage in agricultural production and insufficient labor supply in nonagricultural sectors. In this regard, this paper puts forward policy recommendations such as promoting full employment of agricultural labor, improving the efficiency of the allocation of rural production factors, promoting the local transfer of rural labors and eliminating barriers to labor transfer across regions.