Abstract: Based on the microlevel enterprise data, this paper empirically examines the impact of trade policy uncertainty on the probability of Chinese enterprises OFDI. The conclusion shows that: the reduction of trade policy uncertainty can effectively promote the OFDI of enterprises through learning effect. Further analysis indicates that the choices of OFDI of enterprises with different ownership types, different factor intensities and different productivities are significantly heterogeneous when they are impacted by trade policy uncertainty. The findings are valid after considering the endogenous problems and replacing the measurement of trade policy uncertainty.

Key words:  , policy uncertainty, probability of outward foreign direct investment, Logit model

摘要： 本文基于中国企业微观数据，深入探讨了贸易政策不确定性对中国企业对外直接投资概率的影响。实证研究发现：贸易政策不确定性下降，能有效促进企业对外直接投资的发生，其影响机制是通过学习效应实现的。本文通过进一步检验，发现不同所有制类型、要素密集度、生产率的企业在面临贸易政策不确定性冲击时，其对外直接投资行为具有显著的异质性。该研究结论在考虑内生性问题、更换贸易不确定性的度量方式等稳健性检验后依然成立。

关键词: color:#000000, font-family:", sans serif", ,tahoma,verdana,helvetica, font-size:12px, font-style:normal, font-weight:normal, line-height:1.5, text-decoration:none, ">贸易政策不确定性, 对外直接投资概率, Logit模型