对中国贸易顺差是否虚高的认识——以中美贸易不平衡为例

经济理论与经济管理 ›› 2007, Vol. ›› Issue (10): 11-16.

对中国贸易顺差是否虚高的认识——以中美贸易不平衡为例

仲鑫, 戴伟伟

北京师范大学经济与工商管理学院, 北京, 100875

收稿日期:2007-09-02 出版日期:2007-10-16 发布日期:2012-03-01

WHETHER CHINESE FOREIGN TRADE SURPLUS IS ILLUSIVELY HIGH OR NOT

ZHONG Xin, DAI Wei-wei

School of Economics and Business Management, Beijing Normal University, Beijing 100875, China

Received:2007-09-02 Online:2007-10-16 Published:2012-03-01

摘要/Abstract

摘要： 从出口退税与贸易顺差的因果关系检验出发,我们可以得出出口退税可能引发非贸易资金流入的结论。从统计方法、转口贸易等角度并结合中美两国的数据进行检验,我们可以看到,中国贸易顺差确实存在虚高成分。中国贸易顺差的虚高将催生经济局部甚至全面过热,增加人民币升值压力,加剧境内金融市场流动性过剩,导致贸易争端升级。对此,应当引起我们的重视。

关键词: 贸易顺差虚高, 出口退税, 非贸易资金, 贸易争端

Abstract: Cause-effect test of tax reimbursement for export and trade surplus shows that tax reimbursement for export will result in non-trade capital inflow.Considering statistical methods,transit trade,and economic data of China and America gives the outcome that Chinese trade surplus is indeed illusively high.The illusively high of Chinese trade surplus will lead to partial or even general economic fever,press RMB to appreciate,aggravate the liquidity surplus in domestic capital market,and induce trade dispute.Therefore,we must pay great attention.

Key words: illusively high of trade surplus, tax reimbursement for export, non-trade capital, trade dispute

中图分类号:

F752.6

仲鑫, 戴伟伟. 对中国贸易顺差是否虚高的认识——以中美贸易不平衡为例[J]. 经济理论与经济管理, 2007, (10): 11-16.

ZHONG Xin, DAI Wei-wei. WHETHER CHINESE FOREIGN TRADE SURPLUS IS ILLUSIVELY HIGH OR NOT[J]. Economic Theory and Business Management, 2007, (10): 11-16.