经济理论与经济管理 ›› 2009, Vol. ›› Issue (2): 53-59.

• 国际经济 • 上一篇    下一篇

20世纪80年代以来全球经济外部不平衡的调整:历史的视角

宋劲松, 王晋斌   

  1. 中国人民大学经济学院, 北京, 100872
  • 收稿日期:2008-11-20 出版日期:2009-02-16 发布日期:2012-03-01

A HISTORICAL PERSPECTIVE ON THE ADJUSTMENTS OF GLOBAL EXTERNAL IMBALANCE SINCE THE 1980S

SONG Jing-song, WANG Jin-bin   

  1. School of Economics, Renmin University of China, Beijing 100872, China
  • Received:2008-11-20 Online:2009-02-16 Published:2012-03-01

摘要: 20世纪80年代以来全球经济外部不平衡发生了三次大的调整,每次调整的背景和方式不同。20世纪80年代美日之间的外部不平衡是通过高增长背景下刻意的货币制度设计来完成的,是一种"渐进"的调整方式。20世纪90年代东南亚国家外部不平衡的调整是在高增长背景下,由货币"错配"引发的组合投资逆转带来的以货币危机形式完成的,是一种"休克"的调整方式。而2006年以来至今的美国经济外部不平衡的调整是在金融危机加速全球经济急速下滑的背景下,更可能依靠实体经济总需求的下降来调整,将是一个相对缓慢的过程。

关键词: 货币制度, 组合投资逆转, 总需求

Abstract: Global external imbalance adjustments have occurred three times in the world since the 1980's,and the adjustments differ in the backgrounds as well as the methods used.The imbalance adjustments between U.S.and Japan in the 1980s were carried out by deliberate monetary-regime design in a manner of "gradualism".The imbalance adjustments of the Southeast Asia countries in the 1990s were completed by a financial crisis caused by the reversal of international portfolio investments,in a manner similar to a shock therapy.The recent external imbalance adjustments of the U.S.since 2006 have taken place in a background of global economy downturn accelerated by financial crises,and thus depend heavily on the adjustment of aggregate demand in the real economy,which implies a slow adjusting process.

Key words: monetary regime, reversal of portfolio investment, aggregate demand

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