关键词: 经济政策不确定性, 对外直接投资模式, 实物期权, 注意力基础观

Abstract: Recently，external factors such as geopolitical tensions and global public health crises have continuously and asymmetrically increased economic policy uncertainty across countries worldwide As a crucial link between the home country and the host country，Outward foreign direct investment （OFDI） by enterprises is inevitably influenced by bilateral economic policy uncertainty Meanwhile，enterprises can select investment modes to mitigate the risks associated with this uncertainty However，existing literature primarily focuses on the relationship between host country economic policy uncertainty and investment mode choice The systemic impacts of bilateral economic policy uncertainty and the effects of asymmetric external shocks on this relationship have not yet been adequately addressed
Based on real options theory，we incorporate bilateral economic policy uncertainty into the decisionmaking framework for entry modes We analyze the mechanisms through which bilateral economic policy uncertainty influences Chinese enterprises OFDI modes and the boundaries of its impact To test our hypotheses，we use microdata of Chinese Ashare listed companies spanning from 2004 to 2017 for empirical test We find that the increase in bilateral economic policy uncertainty encourages Chinese enterprises to choose the crossborder M&A mode We also find that the improvement of the economic development level of the home country can mitigate the impact of the rising economic policy uncertainty of the home country on OFDI mode，while the influence of the host countrys increased level of economic development is not significant Moreover，we discuss the asymmetric allocation of corporate attention to bilateral economic policy uncertainty after the outbreak of the financial crisis，by combining the attentionbased view We find that after the financial crisis shock，OFDI mode is mainly affected by the economic policy uncertainty of the host country
The main contributions of this paper are as follows：（1） This study，grounded in real option theory，first incorporates bilateral economic policy uncertainty into the decisionmaking framework for Chinese enterprises outbound investment strategies，thereby providing a more comprehensive theoretical framework for subsequent related research （2） Based on attentionbased view，this paper examines the asymmetric attention of Chinese enterprises to bilateral economic policy uncertainty during periods of significant increases in such uncertainty，using the financial crisis as a case study In summary，this paper not only offers a valuable research framework for examining the impact of economic policy uncertainty on corporate strategic decisionmaking，but also serves as empirical support for China in the development of highquality “going out” policies

Key words: economic policy uncertainty, outward foreign direct investment mode, real option, attentionbased view