关键词: 中国经济, 经济复苏, 改革开放, 增长预测

Abstract: 2024 is the year when Chinas economy hits bottom and stabilizes After experiencing the impact of the COVID19 pandemic from 2020 to 2022 and the recovery of growth in 2023，Chinas macroeconomy in 2024 is facing a fierce collision between “flow recovery” and “stock adjustment”，which brings different difficulties and challenges from previous periods This has led to a series of noteworthy new phenomena，features，and problems in the overall quantity and structure，on macro and micro levels of Chinas economy In the first three quarters，Chinas economy met its expected targets，but faced increasingly downward pressures and challenges At the end of the third quarter，China adjusted its macroeconomic policy direction，implemented stock policies，and intensified the introduction of incremental policies，effectively reversing the downward trend of Chinas economy quarter by quarter and showing eight signs of bottoming out and stabilizing As key indicators improve，the economic growth rate in the fourth quarter is expected to bottom out and rebound Chinas economy is expected to achieve a growth target of around 5% in 2024 and move towards 2025 with a better posture 2025 is the year when Chinas economy bottoms out and rebounds Unlike 2024，Chinas economic development in 2025 will face four new opportunities Meanwhile，2025 is also a year of structural adjustment marked by the interplay of multiple factors，and the Chinese economy is facing a series of downward risks that are worth paying attention to Based on the above qualitative judgment，this report offers scenariobased predictions for Chinas economic forecasts for 2024—2025 Under the benchmark scenario，macroeconomic policies continue to exert force，and Chinas economy is further recovering It is expected that the economy will grow by 49% in 2024 and 48% in 2025 In an optimistic scenario，the real estate market has stopped falling and stabilized，and reform measures have brought new momentum It is expected that the economy will grow by 50% in 2024 and 52% in 2025 In a pessimistic scenario，the adjustment of the real estate market falls short of expectations，with the impact of Trumps tariffs It is expected that the economy will grow by 48% in 2024 and 46% in 2025 It recommends continuing with the current round of macroeconomic regulation，reform measures that meet policy consistency assessments be launched as soon as possible，and seven specific measures are proposed

Key words: China's economy, economic recovery, reform and openingup, growth forecast