关键词: 地方政府债务风险, 省际溢出, 溢出指数, 频域分解

Abstract: The prevention and resolution of local government debt risks are critical to Chinas financial stability and economic growth This article first uses the daily frequency transaction data of individual bonds to construct the provincial urban investment bond and local bond spread indicators，and then examines the interprovincial local government debt risk spillover effect and the frequency domain superposition of interprovincial local government debt risk spillovers mechanism and its main influencing factors The empirical results show that the spatial distribution of urban investment bond risks is related to the level of economic development，showing obvious characteristics of “high in the west and low in the east”，while local bonds are not；the total spillover of local government debt risk is mainly dominated by shortterm spillover；the balance of bonds affects its shortterm net spillover，while economic fundamental factors affect its longterm net spillover Based on the empirical results，this paper proposes a framework for local government debt risk transmission and supervision policies

Key words: local government debt risk, inter-provincial spillover, spillover index, frequency domain decomposition  ,