关键词: 边际减排成本, 工业减排, 碳达峰, 碳中和, 趋势预测

Abstract: Starting from the marginal abatement cost，this paper uses the nonparametric estimation method of the directional distance function to measure the marginal carbon abatement costs of China's industrial industry from 1997 to 2019，predicts the change of the marginal emission reduction cost of various industries in China from 2020 to 2030，judges the current development trendMoreover，The carbon emission peaking process of various industries is studied，and the influencing factors of the marginal carbon dioxide emission reduction cost are analyzedThe study finds that during the estimation period，the marginal carbon abatement costs of various industries in China have increased significantly，but there are large differences in the rate of increase and there is obvious heterogeneity in emission reduction potentials among various industriesThe forecast results show that under the current development trend，most of China's industries can reach their peaks before 2030，but some heavy industries need to speed up their transformationIndustrial structure，energy consumption structure and energy efficiency have significant impacts on the marginal carbon abatement costs of all industries，which provides a feasible idea for controlling the emission reduction cost to accelerate the process of carbon peaking

Key words: marginal abatement cost, industrial abatement, carbon peaking, carbon neutrality, trend forecast