经济理论与经济管理 ›› 2022, Vol. 42 ›› Issue (10): 74-84.

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美国购油策略分析及对中国的启示

  

  1. 中国人民大学商学院
  • 出版日期:2022-10-16 发布日期:2022-11-03
  • 基金资助:
    本文得到国家自然科学基金项目(71873136)的资助

AN ANALYSIS OF THE U.S. CRUDE OIL IMPORTING STRATEGY

  1. Renmin Business School, Renmin University of China
  • Online:2022-10-16 Published:2022-11-03

摘要: 美国页岩油革命改变了美国原油贸易格局,使得美国进口原油品质趋于重质化,且地域来源趋于集中化。本文通过挖掘页岩油革命后美国原油进口策略转变的内在原因,提出美国国内页岩油需求与对加拿大原油进口之间存在互补效应,而与对欧佩克原油进口之间存在替代效应,并通过协整检验和格兰杰因果关系检验,分析了美国页岩油需求和对各国原油进口的互动关系。本文的研究结果对中国的页岩油战略和中美原油贸易关系均有重要的政策启示。

关键词: 页岩油革命, 原油进口, 美国原油独立

Abstract: With the rapid growth of shale oil industry in the U.S., crude oil trade pattern of the U.S.has changedThe proportion of heavy crude in the U.S.total crude oil imports has significantly increased and the concentration of its oil import sources has also been amplifiedThis paper investigates the underlying causes of the strategic change in the U.S.oil imports and proposes a complementary relationship between the domestic shale oil use and the imports of Canadian oil and a substitution relationship between the domestic shale oil use and the imports of oil from OPECThe results of cointegration test and Granger causality test have confirmed above hypotheses and provide some evidence for the interaction between the U.S.shale oil demand and crude oil imports from different importing partnersFinally, this study has important policy implications for China's shale oil strategy and the SinoU.S.crude oil trade relationship

Key words: shale oil revolution, crude oil import, U.S.oil independence