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Abstract: Based on the accurate definition of the statistical caliber of rural employed persons, this paper uses the 2015 Special Survey Data of Outflow Monitoring released by the National Health and Family Planning Commission of China to construct a multiclass prediction model based on the selection of rural labor employment types. Then using the supervised machine methods of AdaBoost algorithm, this paper estimates the absolute surplus labor force and relative surplus labor force in rural areas in 2010—2018. The results show that the absolute surplus labor force in rural areas in 2018 is 3692 million, 806% of which is the explicit surplus labor in the form of open unemployment; the relative surplus labor force in 2018 is 5369 million, and only 1051 million of them are the outside transferable surplus labor force. This paper judges that China has stridden across the first Lewis turning point, and will continue to face the dual dilemma of labor shortage in agricultural production and insufficient labor supply in nonagricultural sectors. In this regard, this paper puts forward policy recommendations such as promoting full employment of agricultural labor, improving the efficiency of the allocation of rural production factors, promoting the local transfer of rural labors and eliminating barriers to labor transfer across regions.

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