经济理论与经济管理 ›› 2021, Vol. 41 ›› Issue (5): 4-16.

• 经济热点·新冠肺炎疫情的影响与对策 •    下一篇

应对新冠疫情冲击的货币政策国际协调*

  

  1. 中国人民大学财政金融学院
  • 出版日期:2021-05-16 发布日期:2021-05-26
  • 基金资助:
    本文得到了研究阐释党的十九届四中全会精神国家社科基金重大项目“推动建立国际宏观经济政策协调机制研究”(20ZDA053)的资助。

应对新冠疫情冲击的货币政策国际协调*

  1. School of Finance, Renmin University of China
  • Online:2021-05-16 Published:2021-05-26

摘要: 新冠疫情冲击了世界经济增长和金融市场稳定。很多国家推出极度宽松货币政策应对危机。从经典货币政策国际协调的博弈理论来看,应对本次疫情冲击的各国货币政策协调性不足,“以邻为壑”的非合作均衡效果明显。为数不多的货币政策协调也存在执行力不足、深度与广度不够、新兴市场国家话语权低等问题。在世界经济紧密联系、货币政策溢出效应加强的背景下,为了应对疫情冲击,国际组织需要创设协议和合作剩余分配机制,寻找货币政策刺激效果和防止国际资产泡沫之间的平衡,加强政策沟通和信息共享,提高新兴市场国家话语权,建设有效的应对危机的货币政策国际协调机制。中国应在“一带一路”倡议的框架下建立长期货币政策协调机制,在现有的IMF和G20等平台上发挥发达国家与新兴市场国家之间的协调桥梁作用,通过持续开展央行间技术性合作等措施参与和推进协调进程。

关键词: 货币政策, 国际协调, 新冠疫情, 博弈论

Abstract: The COVID-19 pandemic has caused a sharp decline in the world economy and financial markets. A number of countries have implemented easy monetary policies to stimulate their economies. The classical game theory of monetary policy coordination suggests that the world is in need of coordination and lives in the beggarthyneighbor equilibrium. The existing cooperations which ignore the voice of emerging economies are limited in implementation and depth. The world now works with close economic ties and strong spillover effects of monetary policies. To build an effective anticrisis monetary policy international coordination system, international cooperation organizations ought to introduce agreements and cooperation surplus distribution schemes, trade off between monetary stimulus and asset bubble controlling, stay in policy communication and information sharing, give more importance to the voice of developing economies and build an effective international monetary policy coordination system in response to crisis. China should build the longterm policy coordination in the Belt and Road Initiative, mediate between the industrial countries and emerging countries in IMF and G20, and engage in technical cooperation of central banks to participate in the coordination process.

Key words: monetary policy, international coordination, COVID-19, game theory