关键词: 海外并购, 经济政策不确定性, 产业政策, 实物期权  ,

Abstract:

This paper extends the real option model of the timing of merger and acquisition under economic policy uncertainty by integrating the characteristics of biased industrial policy, empirically studies the influence of economic policy uncertainty on the timing of crossborder M&As using the data of Chinese listed enterprises from 2002 to 2018, and examines the role of industrial policy in the above impact. Theoretical studies reveal that rising uncertainty will delay the optimal timing of corporate M&As, and industrial policies will alleviate the above effects, thereby making M&As show “contrarian” characteristics. Empirical tests confirm the “contrarian” characteristics of Chinese enterprises overseas M&As, and find that China's “fiveyear plan” industrial policy is an important driving force for Chinese enterprises to “buck the trend”. Mechanism analysis shows that the “fiveyear plan” industrial policy affects the timing of crossborder M&As through easing financial constraints and increasing subsidies. Compared with enterprises that did not carry out crossborder M&As, enterprises that carried out crossborder M&As have significantly increased their access to loan funds and government subsidy funds. Enterprises' expectations of these “policy benefits” have further boosted their crossborder M&As decisions.

Key words: crossborder M&, A, economic policy uncertainty, industrial policy, real option