关键词: 宏观经济稳定, 金融周期变量, 异质性, 精细政策

Abstract: Macroeconomic stability has long been an important goal of China's macroeconomic regulation, and it has been more widely concerned during the “New Normal” period. As a necessary condition for macroeconomic stability, financial stability is predicated on the understanding of the financial cycle. This requires careful study of the impact of financial cycle variables on macroeconomic operation in order to support policy precision. This paper uses the relevant quarterly data of financial cycle and macroeconomic variables, applies the filtering method to find the fluctuant and stationary period of macroeconomy, utilizes the machine learning algorithm to verify the matching degree between the selected input variables and output variables and derives the importance of the fluctuation of each input variable to the fluctuation of the output variables. This paper finds that although the macroeconomic performances in the period of stability and volatility are different, the sum of the importance of the asset price index and the credit level on each of macroeconomic variables is more than 50%, regardless of the period of stability or volatility, while the importance of other financial cycle variables such as leverage and risk exposures of financial institutions are limited, which indicates that it is necessary to shoot the arrow at the target. Compared with releasing liquidity with a big scale, it can focus on maintaining asset price stability and optimizing credit policy rationing to achieve optimal results and escort macroeconomic stability.

Key words: macroeconomic stability, financial cycle variables, heterogeneity, refinement policy