关键词: 中国制造企业, GVC嵌入, 新冠肺炎疫情, 负面影响机制, 风险研判

Abstract: To the operation of Global Value Chain(GVC),the COVID19 epidemic is not only a shortterm impact,but also a longterm test.This brings about an urgent research question:in its process from sudden outbreak to normalization,and finally to the end,what negative impacts will the COVID19 epidemic have on the GVC embeddedness of Chinese manufacturing enterprises?By reviewing GVC theory,this paper analyzes the value distribution and pressure sources of latecomer manufacturing enterprises who embedded in GVC,explores their embedded costs,and points out that the COVID19 epidemic will suddenly impact their cash flow,normally impact their product cost,longtermly increase their opportunity cost on GVC embeddedness,and thus result in the increasing risks of bankruptcy,being squeezed out of GVC,and being restructured out of GVC.Based on the identification of negative impact sand the risk assessment,this paper abstracts and extricates the turning points of intervention policies,demonstrating the salience of transformation supporting policies over financial bailout ones,the salience of recovering logistics policies over resuming work and production ones,and the salience of price stabling policies over tax reducing ones.Based on the inclination of Chinas current intervention policies,which mainly focus on financial bailout and transformation support while neglect standards and rules,this paper suggests to strengthen the proactive guidance and adaptation on developing new standards and rules for GVC.Further,based on the complex impacts of intervention policies formulated by other countries on the Chinese firms' embeddedness in GVC,this paper posits to systematically identify international political risks and thus improve risk prevention and control.

Key words: Chinese manufacturing enterprises, embeddedness in GVC, COVID19 epidemic, negative impact mechanism, risk assessment