关键词: “全面二孩”政策 , 城镇职工养老保险 , 出生率 , 总和生育率 , 养老金

Abstract: On the basis of analyzing short and long influence on the implementation of “universal twochild” policy towards urban birth population, this paper has calculated payment balance change of city labor forces endowment insurance in different implementation effect of “universal twochild” policy Empirical research discovers as follows First, the implementation of “universal twochild” policy will postpone emerging time of total population peak of cities and towns Meanwhile, it will increase scale of population peak Second, in the situation that policy effect is pessimistic and eclectic, the implementation of “universal twochild” policy just postpone emerging time of inflection point of insured worker population reduction It cant change the overall trend of insured worker population reduction In optimistic situation, we can maintain basic stabilization of insured worker population Third, the implementation of ‘universal twochild policy is good for balance of payments of endowment insurance of the urban staffs The effects of the policy will appear since 2037 The proportions of compensating the annuity gap under three policy effects are 36%, 52% and 68% respectively The effects will begin to decrease year by year since 2040 By 2050 the proportions of compensating the annuity gap will decrease to 11%, 27% and 50% respectively, which cannot change the tendency that the annuity gap keeps expanding.

Key words: “universal twochild&rdquo, policy , endowment insurance for urban employee , birth rate, total fertility rate , gap of pension