经济理论与经济管理

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退休冲击、消费动态支出变动及消费结构优化*——基于企业、机关事业单位退休人员消费影响因素的比较

王增文,何冬梅   

  1. 南京财经大学公共管理学院
  • 出版日期:2016-03-16 发布日期:2016-03-18
  • 基金资助:

    本文得到国家社会科学基金后期资助项目(15FGL014)、江苏省高校哲学社会科学基金项目(2015SJB141)及教育部人文社会科学重点研究基地重大项目(15JJD630009)的资助。

THE DYNAMIC IMPACT OF RETIREMENT, CONSUMPTION STRUCTURE CHANGES AND CONSUMPTION EXPENDITURE OPTIMIZATION——Comparison of Influence Factors on Consumption of Retirees between Enterprises and Institutions

WANG Zeng-wen,HE Dong-mei   

  1. School of Public Administration, Nanjing University of Finance and Economics
  • Online:2016-03-16 Published:2016-03-18

摘要:

中国经济已进入新常态,然而老龄化趋势日益严重,靠出口和投资拉动的滞后经济增长模式,使得中国转型阶段面临两大核心挑战——退休冲击和国内消费不足。如何应对退休危机,提升居民消费,是亟待解决的问题。本文从中国“养老金双轨制”这一热点问题切入,选取了中国1998—2014年30个地区宏观面板数据分静态和动态两大部分对理论进行实证检验,重点分析企业和事业单位退休冲击对城镇居民消费的影响。在居民总消费支出水平方面,企业单位退休冲击对其具有显著抑制作用,机关事业单位退休冲击对其具有显著正向效应。居民消费结构方面,情况较为复杂。产生这些异质效应的主要原因在于退休双轨制造成的不平等差异和两类退休人群自身主观区别等。鉴于此,本文提出了释放并轨改革的消费效应,完善养老、医疗等社会保障体系,稳定居民消费预期,调整市场结构,推动老龄产业和银发市场的发展等政策建议。
 

关键词: 城镇居民消费 , 消费结构 , 养老金双轨制 , 优化

Abstract:

Chinas economy has entered a new normal state. However, the aging trend is increasingly serious, accompanied by the export and investment leads to the lagging economic growth model, which makes Chinas transition stage facing two core challenges: retirement shocks and domestic consumption. How to deal with the retirement crisis and promote the consumption of residents is a problem to be solved. This paper focuses on Chinas “dual track system” of the hot issues and selects 30 regions of Chinas macroeconomic panel data from 1998 to 2014, focusing on analysis of the impact of corporate and public retirement on the impact of urban residents. On the level of the total consumption of the residents, the impact of corporate retirement has a significant inhibition on it, and the impact on the retirement of the institution has a significant positive effect on the impact of the government and the peoples consumption structure, and the situation is more complex. The main cause of these effects is the inequality of the two track and the subjective differences between the two groups. In view of this, to be proposed consumption effect of the release of the merger reform, improving the oldage social security system, stabilizing consumer expectations and adjusting the market structure can promote the development of aging industry and silver market policy
recommendations.

Key words: retirement impact , consumption of urban residents , consumption structure , dual track system , optimization